【行业研究报告】舜宇光学科技-Short term pain, long term gain

Sunny’sFY23resultdisappointsmarket,withrevenueandnetincome
Sunny’sFY23resultdisappointsmarket,withrevenueandnetincome
cameinatRMB31,681mn/1,099mnrespectively(-4.6%/-54.3%Yoy).
Sunny’stoplinewas~2%belowBloombergconsensusandourestimates,
whilenetincomearrivedatthelow-endoftheprofitwarningalertinend-
Jan.Sunny’sFY23netprofitwasalso19%belowourestimates.Sunny’s
resultmisswasdrivenbythefollowingfactors:i)dampenedsmartphone
enddemand,whichledtoASPandGMpressure.BlendedGMcame
in14.5%(vs.1H23at14.9%and~140bpslowerthanBloomberg
consensus)duetooptoelectronicsmarginpressure;ii)higher
interestexpenseandeffectivelytaxrateoffsethigherinterestand
investmentincome.
Highendproductcontributionstabilizedin2H23;SoftHLSand
HCMshipmentguidance,ASPandGMfocusedagoodmove
Handsetrelatedsalesdropped10.0%YoytoRMB20.9bnonthebackof
weaksmartphoneenddemand,de-specandcompetitioncontinuetopost
adragonFY23ASPandGM.Opticalcomponents(mainlyHLS)and
optoelectronics(mostlyHCM)shipmentvolumearrivedat1,170mn/567mn
units(-1.8%/+9.8%Yoy)respectively.
Sunny’sopticalcomponentsandoptoelectronics’GMeachslipped
6.0ppts/5.2pptsYoyto28.4%/5.5%.OnHoHbasis,opticalcomponents’
GMreboundedto30%levelin2H23,whichwebelieveSunnybenefitfrom
therecoveryinpremiumsmartphonemarket.Meanwhileoptoelectronic
products’GMfurtherslippedto~4.0%basedonourcalculation.
ManagementexpectsFY24EGMtoimprove,withHLS/VLS/HCMGM
wouldbe~20%/~40%/5-6%respectively.
ThoughSunny’sFY23high-endhandsetproductmix(i.e.6P+lens,
periscopesandlargeimagesizemodules)wasdownYoy,thecontribution
waslargelystableHoH,weviewthisasasignofstabilizationinhighend
productshipment:
⚫Sunny’shigh-endproductcontributionmadegoodprogressin
recentyearswithincreasingcontributionfrom6P+lens
(23.0%/24.7%/25.6%/32%inFY19-Y23),thankstotappinginto
USsmartphoneclientsupplychain.Duetoweakenddemand,
shipmentwasdown20%Yoyto302mnunitsinFY23(25.8%
contributionvs.25.7%in1H23).
⚫Periscopesandlargeimagesize(>1/1.7”)cameramodules
slipped38.8%Yoy(vs.51.7%in1H23)to43.4mnunitsandtook
up7.6%ofHCMshipmentvolume(vs.6%/10.3%/6.7%/13.7%
inFY19-FY22).
SunnyprovidedasoftguidanceonFY24EHLSandCCMshipment,in
whichHLSshipmenttogrow5%Yoy(in-linewithourexpectation),while
HCMshipmentvolumetobeflattishYoy,andManagementwouldfocuson
improvingproductmixwhichwouldbenefitbothASPandGM.Market
viewsthesesetofshipmentvolumeguidanceasaconservative/softone,
andwouldhinderSunny’sneartermsharepricerebound.Nevertheless,
westillexpectglobalsmartphoneshipmentwouldgraduallypickupin
FY24E,mainlydrivenbytop-tierclients’flagshipmodel.Westillexpect
Sunny’sshareallocationinUSsmartphoneclient(HLS+potentialCCM
orders)andSamsung(supplyingflagshipHCM)isstillonupward
trajectory,whichwouldprovidesupporttobothASPandGM.