【行业研究报告】安踏体育-An inline 1Q24 plus an improving outlook

Retailsalesgrowthin1Q24wasslow,butitwaswidelyexpected.Wesee
FY24Egrowthsupportedby:1)healthymomentuminlateMar,2)anexciting
productlaunchpipeline,3)furthersegmentationbyAntaintermsofproducts
andstoreformat,and4)gradualimprovementinretaildiscounts(rather
achievablefore-commerce).WemaintainBUYandcontinuetoseeAntaasour
sportswearsectortoppick.Itistradingat16xFY24EP/E,undemandinggiven
itsturnaroundtrend.
Therecoverypacemaynotbelinearbutwestillbelievetheoutlookis
positive.Whilemanagementreiteratedtheirguidanceof10%-15%retail
positive.Whilemanagementreiteratedtheirguidanceof10%-15%retail
salesgrowthinFY24E,theydonotthinktherecoveryhastobelinear.But
wedoconcurwiththeirpositiveview,supportedby:1)constructive
momentuminlateMar2024,whentheretailsalesexecutionratesurgedto
over120%,2)anexcitingproductlaunchpipeline(moreOlympics-related
productsin2Q24EandKyrieIrvingproducts(mass-marketpositioned)in
3Q24Eand4Q24E,3)ticketsizeanditemperticketcouldstillincreaseeven
thoughtheASPmaystayflattish,4)moresegmentationforAnta,e.g.,the
Championstoreswillincreasefrom40-50inFY23to90inFY24E,where
retailsalesgrowthwasdecentthankstoimprovedproductdesigns(e.g.,
Olympics-related),expansionofcategories(e.g.,outdoor)andmorenew
storeformats(differentsetsofproductsanddesignstocatertovarious
levelsofcustomersinlower-tiercities),and5)potentialspeed-upinstore
expansionandstoreupgrades(esp.forFILA,eventhoughtheyhaveno
plantoopenstoresinlower-tiercities).
Retailsalesgrowthin1Q24wasinlinease-commerceoutperformed.
Anta/FILA’sretailsalesgrowthwasatMSD/HSDin1Q24,slowingdown
fromhigh-teens/25%-30%in4Q23,butroughlyinlinewithCMBIest.of7%/
6%.Wedeemtheseunderstandablegiventhehighbaselastyear.Infact,
theexecutionratewasover100%in1Q24;thereforeitwasinlinewiththe
company’sguidance.Bychannel,e-commercehadastrongreboundwith
20%-25%/25%growthforAnta/FILA(thebasewashighforFILAwithover
40%growthin1Q23)whileofflinesalesgrowthwasnegative(FILAhada
smalldropinstorecountYoY).Bysegment,basketballoutperformedwith
thelaunchesofKyrieIrvingshoes,whilerunningandothercategoriesalso
enjoyedadecentboostinsalesgrowth.
MaintainBUYandTPofHK$101.73,basedon20xFY24EP/E
(unchanged),supportedby13%/17%sales/NPCAGRsduringFY23-26E.
Thestockistradingat16xFY24EP/E,around1.4s.dbelowits5-year
averageof26x.