【行业研究报告】虎牙-Fundamentals to bottom out

14May2024
CMBInternationalGlobalMarkets|EquityResearch|CompanyUpdate
Huya(HUYAUS)
Fundamentalstobottomout
Huya’s1Q24resultsbeatonmargin,withtopline/bottomline1%/84%
aboveconsensus.Lookinginto2Q24E,weexpectrevenuetoachieve5%
QoQgrowth,inwhichlivestreamingwouldbottomoutandothersrevenue
+25%OoQ.WearepositiveonHuya’sgame-relatedbusinessmonetization
andexpectupsidefrommultipletitlescooperatingwithTencent(e.g.DNF
Mobile).WearemorebullishonHuya’sprofitability(revisingFY24Eprofit
uptoRMB254mn,vs.priorofRMB132mn),supportedbyenhanced
monetizationandbetterefficiency.Toreflectenhancedprofitability,we
slightlyraiseditsadj.NPMby0.2ppts-1.9pptsinFY24-26E.OurDCF-based
TPwasunchangedatUS$6.8
1Q24resultsbeatonmargin.1Q24revenuedeclined23%YoY,-2%QoQ
(1%aboveconsensus),inwhichlivestreaming-32%YoYandothers+173%
(1%aboveconsensus),inwhichlivestreaming-32%YoYandothers+173%
YoY.Livestreamingsegmentwaslargelyinline,withproactivebusiness
adjustments.Game-relatedservices,advertisingandotherrevenuessurged
by173%(31%aboveourestimates),onrisinggameadvertising&
distributionservicesandin-gameitemsales.1Q24achievedadj.netprofit
atRMB92mn,84%aboveconsensus,backedbyhigherGPM(declining
revenuesharingfeesandcontentcosts)andprudentopexcontrol.By1Q24,
HuyarepurchasedUS$48.5mnofshares.
Livestreamingtobottomout,withstrongergamebusiness
monetization.For2Q24E,weexpectMAUandpayinguserstoachieve
sequentialgrowth,thankstoTencent’strafficsynergiesandtournaments
season.2Q24Erevenuewouldgrowatlowtomid-singledigitQoQ,inour
estimates.Weseehighvisibilityforlivestreamingtobottomout(forecasting
livestreaming+1%QoQin2Q24E),withcompetitionlandscapetopullback
andcooperationwithshortvideoplatforms.Game-relatedservices,
advertisingandotherrevenueswasestimatedtogrow25%QoQin2Q24E,
backedbystrongergamemonetization.ApartfromHonorofKings(HoK)
《王者荣耀》andDreamStar《元梦之星》,weexpectHuyatocooperate
withTencentwithmoretitles(e.g.DNFMobile).Forthebottomline,we
expectadj.netprofitatRMB105mnin2Q24E,inwhichGPMwouldimprove
QoQandnon-GAAPopexmaykeepstable.WearemorepositiveonHuya’s
profitability(revisingFY24EprofituptoRMB254mn,vs.priorof
RMB132mn),supportedbyenhancedmonetizationandbetterefficiency.
MaintainBUY.Toreflectenhancedprofitability,weslightlyraiseditsadj.NPM
by0.2ppts-1.9pptsinFY24-26E.OurDCF-basedTPwasunchangedat
US$6.8.Furthergamemonetizationwouldboostitsre-ratingahead