【行业研究报告】北方华创-Key beneficiary of semiconductor localization

WerecentlyheldanNDRwithNauraTechnology’smanagementandwe
maintainourpositiveoutlookfortheCompany.WeexpectNauratodeliver
robustrevenuegrowthoncapexexpansionfromdownstreamclientsand
acceleratedsemilocalizationtrend.Inaddition,webelievetheCompany
couldbeoneofthebeneficiariesoftherecentlylaunched“BigFundIII”
(US$47.5bn)inChina.Nauraiscurrentlyourfavouriteunderthesemi
localizationtheme.ReiterateBUYratingforNaura(002371CH),withan
unchangedTPatRMB405.
Geopoliticaltensionshavedrivenmajoreconomiesworldwidetopursue
resilienceoverefficiency,leadingtosignificantinvestmentstostrengthen
resilienceoverefficiency,leadingtosignificantinvestmentstostrengthen
domesticchipfabricationcapabilities.Therecentlyestablished“BigFund
III”(US$47.5bn)inChinaissofarthelargestphaseoftheseries,with
registeredcapitalofRMB344bn(vs.PhaseI/II:RMB139bn/RMB200bn).
ThephaseIIIunderscoresyetanotherChinesegovernment’seffortto
achieveself-sufficiencyinsemiamidtheescalatinggeopoliticaltensions.
Previousphasesfocusedonchipfabrication,equipment,materials,etc.,
andweexpectsimilarinvestmentinterestsforPhaseIII,aswellasa
potentialfocusonAI-relatedareas.WeexpectNauratobeoneofthe
beneficiaries.
Lookingforward,Naurawilllikelymaintainrobustgrowthoncapex
expansionfromclientsandacceleratedsemilocalizationtrend.Key
driversofrevenuecouldbefromorderwinsinCCP,CVDandcleanser
products.TheCompanydisclosedthatneworderssignedin2023were
RMB30bn,ofwhich70%+wereforsemiconductorequipmentand15%
werefornewenergy/PV.Wethinktheseorderswillsupport40%revenue
growthin2024.
WereiterateourBUYratingforNaura(002371CH),withan
unchangedTPatRMB405,basedonthesame39x2024EP/E.We
raiseourGPMforecastsby1.9pptand3.9pptfor2024/25E,considering
largerrevenuecontributionfrommoreadvancedequipment.This
accretiveimpactonnetprofitwasoffsetbyahigherprojectionforR&D
spending(~11%oftotalrevenue),astheCompanyisexpandingits
productcoverage.Risks:1)intensifiedcompetitionfromoverseasand
domesticpeers,and2)escalatinggeopoliticaltensions.