【行业研究报告】兖煤澳大利亚-2Q24 sales volume +1%; Full-year target still achievable

19Jul202419Jul2024CMBInternationalGlobalMarkets|EquityResearch|CompanyUpdateYancoalAustralia(3668HK)2Q24salesvolume+1%;Full-yeartargetstillachievableYancoal’s(YAL)2Q24operatingdatacameinslightlybelowourexpectation,withonly1%YoYincreaseinattributablesalesvolumeduetoadverseweatherconditionsandoperationalfactorssuchaslongwallmoveandwashplantthroughputrates.BlendedASPdropped20%YoYin2Q24butisinlinewiththemarkettrendandourexpectation.WeestimateYancoaldelivered~A$1.5bnofrevenuein2Q24(-20%YoY;+3%QoQ).YALmaintainsthefull-yearsalesvolumeguidanceunchanged.WestillseechancesforYALtoachievethetargetrangewhenvolumegrowthimprovesin2H24E.Wehaveleftourearningsforecastunchangedandwillrevisitourassumptionsuponthereleaseof1H24earningsinAug.MaintainBUYandourNPV-basedTPofHK$45.Thestockremainsattractiveat6.2x2024EP/Eand8%yield.Salesvolumein2Q24:Attributablesalesvolumeofthermalcoal/metallurgicalcoalwas+3%/-17%YoYto7.5mn/1mntonnesin2Q24.Totalattributablesalesvolumeincreased1%YoYto8.6mntonnes.In1H24,thetotalattributablesalesvolumegrew17%YoYto16.8mntonnes,whichaccountedfor45%ofourfull-yearestimateof37.3mntonnes(runratein1H23:43.5%).ASPbreakdownin2Q24.ThermalASPdropped17%YoY(+2.5%QoQ)toA$163/tin2Q24,withintherangeofGCNewc6,000kCal(A$206/torUS$136/t)andAPI5(A$134/torUS$89/t).MetallurgicalASPdropped21%YoYtoA$318/t(-5%QoQ),whichwashigherthanthebenchmarksasYAL’smetASPgenerallylaggedbehindthemarketpricebyaquarter.TheblendedASPdropped20%YoY(+0.5%QoQ)toA$181/t.Solidbalancesheet.Asatend-Jun,YancoalhadagrosscashbalanceofA$1.55bn.WeexpectYancoaltomaintainastrongnetcashpositiongoingforward.2024Efull-yearguidanceunchanged:(1)Attributablesaleableproduction:35-39mntonnes(up5%-17%YoY);(2)operatingcashcost(excludingroyalties):A$89-97/t(-7%to+1%YoY);(3)capex:A$650-800mn(up5%-29%YoY).Keyrisks:(1)furtherdeclineincoalprice;(2)reboundofunitcost;(3)unfavourableweatherthataffectsproduction.TargetPriceHK$45.00Up/Downside23.1%CurrentPriceHK$36.55ChinaEnergyWayneFUNG,CFA(852)39000826waynefung@cmbi.com.hkStockDataMktCap(HK$mn)48,262.1Avg3mthst/o(HK$mn)73.252wHigh/Low(HK$)38.90/23.50TotalIssuedShares(mn)1320.4Source:FactSetShareholdingStructureYankuangEnergy62.3%ChinaCindaAM7.7%Source:HKExSharePerformanceAbsoluteRelative1-mth17.9%22.2%3-mth22.2%12.7%6-mth36.4%18.1%Source:FactSet12-mthPricePerformanceSource:FactSetAuditor:ShineWingAustraliaRelatedReports1.YancoalAustralia(3668HK)–HighercoalpriceassumptionsafterthefireincidentatGrosvenorcoalmine–8Jul2024(link)2.YancoalAustralia(3668HK)–Declinein2023netprofitlargelyexpected;Valuationtobesupportedbyattractiveyield–26Feb2024(link)EarningsSummary(YE31Dec)FY22AFY23AFY24EFY25EFY26ERevenue(AUDmn)10,5487,7787,1336,8906,876YoYgrowth(%)95.2(26.3)(8.3)(3.4)(0.2)Netprofit(AUDmn)3,587.01,818.71,477.11,323.61,331.4EPS(Reported)(AUD)2.721.381.121.001.01YoYgrowth(%)355.0(49.3)(18.8)(10.4)0.6ConsensusEPS(AUD)nana1.141.141.16P/E(x)2.65.06.26.96.9P/B(x)1.11.11.00.90.9Yield(%)17.610.08.07.27.2ROE(%)50.622.116.814.013.2Netgearing(%)(25.2)(14.8)(25.5)(31.7)(39.9)Source:Companydata,Bloomberg,CMBIGMestimates