【行业研究报告】Coinbase Global Inc-A-Strong 4Q24 results; favourable regulatory environment paves way for long-term growth

17Feb2025
CMBInternationalGlobalMarkets|EquityResearch|CompanyUpdate
Coinbase(COINUS)
Strong4Q24results;favourableregulatory
environmentpaveswayforlong-termgrowth
Coinbaseannouncedbetter-than-expected4Q24results:totalrevenuegrewby
138%YoYand88%QoQtoUS$2.27bn,21%aheadofBloombergconsensus
estimate,mainlyattributabletothestrongtradingvolumegrowthamidfavourable
regulatoryenvironment;adjustedEBITDAwasupby298%YoYtoUS$1.29bn,
40%aheadofconsensusestimate,drivenbythestrongoperatingleverage.For
1Q25Eoutlook,Coinbasegeneratedc.US$750mntransactionrevenueduring1
Jan-11Feb(avg.dailytransactionrevenueofc.US$18mnvs.c.US$17mnin
4Q24),andmanagementguided1Q25Esubscriptionandservicesrevenuetobe
US$685-765mn(+34-50%YoY/+7-19%QoQ).Theoverallcryptomarketand
CoinbasehavemaintainedsolidtradingmomentumQTD.WeraiseFY25-26total
revenueforecastby24-27%asthefavourableregulatoryenvironmentcontinues
tosupportcryptomarketsentimentandunlocknewopportunitiesforCoinbase.
WeraiseourSOTP-derivedtargetpricetoUS$352.0(previous:US$250.0).
MaintainBUY.
Strongmomentumincoretransactionandsubscriptionbusinesses.In
4Q24,transactionrevenuegrewby194%YoYand172%QoQtoUS$1.56bn,
4Q24,transactionrevenuegrewby194%YoYand172%QoQtoUS$1.56bn,
andtradingvolumeincreasedby185%YoYand137%QoQ,fuelledbythe
strongrallyofthecryptomarketpostUSpresidentialelection.Averagecrypto
marketcapincreasedby33%andcryptoassetvolatilityroseby27%in4Q24,
supportedbythepro-cryptoUSCongressandfavourableregulatory
environment.Coinbasecontinuedtotakemarketshareviaenrichingasset
offeringsandimprovinguserexperience(4Q24Coinbase/USspotmarket
tradingvolumegrowth:+137%vs.+126%QoQ).Subscriptionandservices
revenueincreasedby64%YoYand15%QoQtoUS$641mnin4Q24,
primarilydrivenbyhighercryptoassetpricesandaveragenativeunitinflows
acrossstaking,custody,andUSDCassets.
FocusonthreekeyinitiativesinFY25E.ForFY25E,Coinbasewillfocus
onthreeaspects:1)drivingrevenuegrowthofcorebusinessbyaccelerating
assetaddition,growingmarketcapofUSDCwithmorepartnerships,and
investinginoverseasexpansion;2)enhancingutilitybymakingcrypto
paymentsmoreavailableforconsumersandbusinesses;3)scaling
foundationsbyactivelyengagingwithregulatorstohelpshapecrypto
regulationintheUS.Weexpecttheseinitiativestopavethewayfor
Coinbase’slong-termsustainablegrowth.
Marginexpansiononstrongoperatingleverage.AdjustedEBITDAmargin
wasupby23pptYoYto58.7%in4Q24,thankstothestrongoperating
leverage.Salesandmarketingexpenseswereupby112%YoYto
US$226mnin4Q24andslightlyhigherthanpreviousguidance,mainlydue
totheelevatedperformancemarketingspendanduseracquisitioncosts.
Lookingahead,managementwillcontinuetostepupinvestmentinuser
acquisition,productdevelopmentandcustomersupport,butmostexpenses
growthwillbedrivenbyvariableexpenses.Managementguidedsalesand
marketingexpensesofUS$235-375mnin1Q25E(+4-66%QoQ).