【行业研究报告】派拓网络-Solid results with enhanced outlook

17Feb2025
CMBInternationalGlobalMarkets|EquityResearch|CompanyUpdate
PaloAltoNetworks(PANWUS)
Solidresultswithenhancedoutlook
PaloAltoNetworks(PANW)announced2QFY25(Julyear-end)results:total
revenuewasup14.3%YoYtoUS$2.26bn,1%aheadofBloombergconsensus,
andnon-GAAPnetincomereachedUS$566mn,up12%YoY,4%betterthan
consensus,drivenbymoreoptimized-than-expectedsalesandmarketing
spendingaidedbyenhancingscaleeffect.WeremainpositivethatPANWis
oneofthekeybeneficiariesintheGen-AIeraasdemandforsecurityshould
soarwithincreasingscaleinAIrelateddeployment.OurFY25-27E
revenue/non-GAAPNPforecastsareliftedby0-2%/1-3%,respectively,tofactor
inbetter-than-expectedrevenuegrowthandscaleeffect.Accountingforslight
adjustmentinsharebasecount,ourTPwasnudgedlowertoUS$230.3(was
US$232.2),basedonunchangedEV/salesmultipleof16.0x.MaintainBUY.
Solidresultsaheadofmarketexpectation.In2QFY25,subscriptionand
supportrevenuegrew16%YoYtoUS$1.8bn,inlinewithconsensus,and
supportrevenuegrew16%YoYtoUS$1.8bn,inlinewithconsensus,and
accountedfor81%ofPANW’stotalrevenue(2QFY24:80%).Next-
GenerationSecurity(NGS)ARRreachedUS$4.78bnbyend-2QFY25,up
37%YoY(2QFY24:50%;1QFY25:40%).Non-GAAPOPreached
US$640.4mn,andtranslatedintoa28.4%non-GAAPOPM,0.5pptsbetter
thanconsensus,drivenbymoreoptimized-than-expectedsalesand
marketingspending.Weestimate3QFY25totalrevenueofUS$2.28bn,up
15%YoY,sustainingasequentialimprovementtrend,aidedbysolid
subscriptionandsupportrevenuegrowth.
NGSproductscontinuedtodeliversolidgrowth.Intermsofkey
operatingmetrics:1)theno.ofactiveSASEcustomersreached>5,600in
2QFY25,up20%YoY,andthenumberofSASEUS$1mn+dealswasup
2.5xYoY;2)totalbookingsacrossCortex&PrismaCloudwasupc.50%
YoY,cumulativeXSIAMbookingshasreachedoverUS$1bn,andthe
numberofPrismaClouddealsoverUS$1mnhasnearlydoubledYoY.We
forecastNGSARRtogrow34%YoYtoUS$5.07bnin3QFY25,drivenby
robustARRgrowthofSASEandXSIAMproducts.
Platformizationstrategybodeswellforlong-termgrowth.Asofend-
2QFY25,PANWachieved1,150(1QFY25:1,100)totalPlatformizations
with75netnewadds(2QFY24:~45)amongitstop5kcustomers.
Managementhighlightedlargedealwinswhichfurthervalidates
Platformizationstrategy:thenumberofaccountsthathadtransactionsin
2QFY25totalling>US$5mn/>US$10mnreached74/32respectively,up
25%/52%YoY.WeremainconstructivethatacceleratedPlatformization
shouldhelpdrivePANW’smarketsharegainsaswellasmarginexpansion
overthelongterm.
UpdateonFY25guidance.Duetoupbeat2QFY25results,andbetter-
than-expectedscaleeffect,managementliftedFY25guidance:1)total
revenuetoUS$9.14bn-9.19bn(fromUS$9.12bn-9.17bn);2)non-GAAP
OPMto28.0%-28.5%(from27.5%-28.0%);and3)dilutednon-GAAPEPS
toUS$3.18-3.24(fromUS$3.13-3.20ifbasedonnewsharecounts).Our
FY25-27Erevenue/non-GAAPNPforecastsareliftedby0-2%/1-3%,to
factorinbetter-than-expectedrevenuegrowthandscaleeffect.