【行业研究报告】华润饮料-FY24： Pleasant surprises from special dividends and target hike

25Mar202525Mar2025CMBInternationalGlobalMarkets|EquityResearch|CompanyUpdateCRBeverage(2460HK)FY24:PleasantsurprisesfromspecialdividendsandtargethikeCRBeverage'sFY24revenuewasflatYoYatRMB13.5bn,missingCMBI'sforecastby6%duetostifferpackagedwatercompetitionandheadwindsfromtheconsumptionclimate,extremeweatherincoreareasandcapacitylimitsofbeverageproducts.Netprofitrose23.1%YoYtoRMB1.6bn,or25%excludinglistingcosts,beatingCMBI'sestimateby4%,asgrossmarginrose3pctto47.3%onahigherproportionofself-ownedcapacity.Thecompanyhasliftedits2025self-ownedcapacityproportiontargetto70%from60%,whichshouldsupportsustainedhighgrowthinprofitinourview.Welikethecompany'ssolidpositioninthepackagedwatermarketandthegrowthpotentialofitsbeveragebusiness.Weprojectthecompany'srevenue/netprofitCAGRinFY25-27Etoreach9%/17%.MaintainBUYwithTPofHK$18.61,basedon18x2025EPE.Catalysts:heroproductsorM&Ainbeveragesegment.Risks:Consumersentimentplunges,pricewar,productquality/safetyissues,rawmaterialpricehikesetc.Revenueslightlymissed,NPinline.FY24revenuewasflatYoY,draggedbypackagedwatersegment,whichbookeda4.5%growthinretailsales,outpacingtheindustry’s2.5%(mktshare+0.4pptto18.8%),butendeduptheyearwitha3%declineinrevenueduetobothcompetitivepressuresandnetworkexpansionnecessitatingpriceconcessionstochannelsandoutlets.Beveragerevenuerose31%,shyofthe40%guidance,impactedbyweakconsumersentimentandcapacityconstraints.Netprofitrose23%,or25%ex-listingcosts,asself-ownedcapacityandlowerrawmaterialpricesboostedgrossmarginby2.7pptto47.3%.Liftedself-ownedcapacitytargetto70%by2025.Thecompany’sself-ownedcapacityproportionsurgedfrom36%inFY23to50%inFY24.Itaimstoraisethisto70%bytheendofthe14thFive-YearPlanperiod(2021-2025),upfromthepriortargetof60%.Thissignalsafastergrossmarginramp-upin2025andsustainedhighcapitalexpenditure.Surpriseinshareholderreturns.Thecompanyoffersa40%dividendpayoutratioandhassurprisedthemarketwitha20%specialdividend,contrarytoexpectationsofprioritizingcapitalexpenditureoverdividendpayoutduringtheexpansionstage.Thecompanystatedtomaintainastabledividendpayoutratiogoingforward.TargetPriceHK$18.61(PreviousTPHK$18.84)Up/Downside23.9%CurrentPriceHK$15.02ChinaConsumerStaplesMiaoZHANG(852)37618910zhangmiao@cmbi.com.hkBellaLI(852)37576202bellali@cmbi.com.hkStockDataMktCap(HK$mn)36,021.0Avg3mthst/o(HK$mn)56.752wHigh/Low(HK$)NA/NATotalIssuedShares(mn)2398.2Source:FactSetShareholdingStructureCRHBeverageLtd.50.0%PlateauConsumerLtd.33.4%Source:HKExSharePerformanceAbsoluteRelative1-mth17.9%15.1%3-mth23.3%3.7%6-mthNMNMSource:FactSet12-mthPricePerformanceSource:FactSetEarningsSummary(YE31Dec)FY23AFY24AFY25EFY26EFY27ERevenue(RMBmn)13,51513,52114,41415,53816,989YoYgrowth(%)7.10.06.67.89.3Netprofit(RMBmn)1,329.31,636.72,028.72,405.82,783.7YoYgrowth(%)34.323.123.918.615.7EPS(Reported)(RMB)0.660.790.981.161.34ConsensusEPS(RMB)nana0.820.940.90P/E(x)21.117.714.312.110.4P/B(x)3.82.42.22.01.8Yield(%)0.03.42.83.33.8ROE(%)21.318.017.218.318.8Netgearing(%)(30.1)(50.4)(49.0)(49.9)(51.6)Source:Companydata,Bloomberg,CMBIGMestimates