【行业研究报告】哔哩哔哩-1Q25 earnings beat; expect strong earnings momentum to continue in 2Q25

21May2025
CMBInternationalGlobalMarkets|EquityResearch|CompanyUpdate
Bilibili(BILIUS)
1Q25earningsbeat;expectstrongearnings
momentumtocontinuein2Q25
BiliBiliannounced1Q25financialresults:totalrevenuewasupby24%YoYto
RMB7.0bn,inlinewithBloombergconsensusestimate;adjustednetincome
reachedRMB362mn,upfromnetlossofRMB456mnin1Q24andaheadof
consensusestimateofRMB248mn,thankstotheGPMexpansion(+8pptYoY)
andprudentcontrolinR&Dexpenses(-13%YoY).For2Q25E,weexpectBili
tomaintain20%YoYtotalrevenuegrowthwithmarginexpansion,drivenbythe
solidmomentumofadvertisingandmobilegamesbusinesses.Weraiseour
FY25-27Enon-GAAPearningsforecaststoRMB2.2/3.2/4.1bn(previous:
RMB1.8/2.7/3.7bn),inviewofthesolidmarginexpansiontrend.Wefine-tune
ourSOTP-derivedtargetpricetoUS$26.5(previous:US$26.4)whichtranslates
to25xFY26Enon-GAAPPE,reflectingthemixedimpactofforecastupliftand
thesectorvaluationdecline.MaintainBUY.
Solidrevenuegrowthacrossbusinesslines.Bysegment,in1Q25:1)
VASrevenuegrewby11%YoYtoRMB2.81bn(40%oftotalrevenue),as
VASrevenuegrewby11%YoYtoRMB2.81bn(40%oftotalrevenue),as
livestreamingbusinessregainedmomentumandinnovativemonetization
methodsdeliveredstronggrowth.RevenuefromFanChargingprogram
grewbyover200%YoYin1Q25.2)Advertisingrevenuewasupby20%
YoYtoRMB2.00bn(29%oftotalrevenue),mainlyattributabletothegrowth
ofperformanceadsandsteadymomentumofbrandads.Performanceads
revenuegrewbyover30%YoY,andthenumberofadvertiserswasupby
over35%YoYin1Q25.3)Mobilegamesrevenuerecordedastronggrowth
of76%YoYtoRMB1.73bnin1Q25(25%oftotalrevenue),thankstothe
strongperformanceofSanMou.DAUsonthefirstdayofSanMouSeason
7havehitanewhighsofarin2025.LegacytitleslikeFGOandAzureLane
deliveredastableYoYrevenuetrendin1Q25.
Healthydevelopmentofusercommunitysupportsbusinessgrowth.
MAUsandaveragedailytimespentgrewby8%and3%YoYto368mnand
108minsin1Q25,bothhittingarecordhigh.Bili’scollaborationwithCCTV’s
CNYGalafurtherexpandeditsreachtoaudiences.For2Q25E,weexpect
totalrevenuetogrowby20%YoYtoRMB7.36bn,withmobile
games/ads/VASrevenue+63/18/11%YoY.Managementisupbeatthat
SanMouwillsustainitssolidperformance,supportedbythelaunchof
Season8inMay,themini-gameversioninsummer,andtheinternational
versionbyend-2025.
Continuedmarginexpansion.OverallGPMimprovedby8pptYoYto
36.3%in1Q25,mainlyduetothestrongperformanceofhigh-margin
businesseslikemobilegamesandadvertising;adjustedOPMwasupby
14pptYoYto4.9%in1Q25,thankstoeffectiveexpensecontrolinaddition
toGPMexpansion.R&Dexpensesdeclinedby13%YoYin1Q25on
enhancedR&Defficiency.For2Q25E,weexpectGPMandadjustedOPM
tofurtherexpandQoQonfavourablerevenuemixshiftandexpensecontrol.