【行业研究报告】北方华创-NDR takeaways: Expanding product portfolio to reinforce domestic SME leadership

21May2025
CMBInternationalGlobalMarkets|EquityResearch|CompanyUpdate
NauraTechnology(002371CH)
NDRtakeaways:Expandingproductportfolio
toreinforcedomesticSMEleadership
WeheldanNDRwithNaurayesterday.Thecompany’snewordersroseby
~25%YoYin2024drivenbystrongICorders,andthemomentumcontinuedin
1Q25.Itexpectsnomaterialimpactfromgeopoliticaltensions(i.e.,theentitylist)
withnewbookingsexpectedtogrowatasimilarratethisyear.Thecompanyis
proactivelyexpandingitsproductcoverage,throughinternalR&Dandexternal
acquisitions.ItskeyICequipmentcategoriesincludeetching,deposition,thermal
processing,cleaning,andnewlycoveredionimplantation(sinceMar2025).It
alsoplanstoacquirea17.9%stakeinKingsemi(link),aphotolithographycoating
equipmentmaker.ThisreinforcedourpositivestanceonthecompanyasChina’s
leadingSMEplayerwiththemostcomprehensiveproductportfolio.Reiterate
BUYasNauracontinuestobenefitfromChina'sacceleratingsemiconductor
localizationamidtighteningexportrestrictions,whileexpandingitsproduct
breadthtostrengthenitspositionasaone-stopequipmentplatformfor
customers.TPremainsunchangedatRMB512basedon36.8x25EPE.
Industryconsolidationremainsakeytheme,exemplifiedbyNaura’s
intendedacquisitionof~18%stakeinKingsemi(688037CH,NR).
intendedacquisitionof~18%stakeinKingsemi(688037CH,NR).
Kingsemi’s2024revenuewasRMB1.8bn(vs.Naura:RMB29.8bn),witha
37.7%GPM(vs.Naura:42.9%).Thecompanybelievesthisstrategicmove
enhancesNaura’sevolutionintoacomprehensivesemiconductorequipment
platform,combiningorganicgrowthwithtargetedM&Atodeepenproduct
coverageandcustomerpenetration.Thetransactionisexpectedtocloseby
3Q25.Thedealalsovalidatesourpriorviewthatdomesticsemiconductor
industryconsolidationwillgainpacein2025E.
NauraremainsconfidentinthedomesticSMEcapexcycle,citingstrong
demandfrombothmatureandadvancednodeprojects.SEMIestimated
ChinaseequipmentcapextoppedUS$50bn(+35%YoY)in2024,drivenby
front-loadedspendingamidgeopoliticaluncertainty.SEMIprojectsChina
marketsizetodeclinetoUS$38bnin2025Eafterthe2024peak.Naura
expectsanormalizationofdemandforoverseasproducts,creatingmore
spaceforlocalvendors.Mgmt.expectsinvestmentindomesticmaturenodes
tostabilizeoverthenext2–3years,whileadvancedlogicandmemory,which
alreadyaccountedoverhalfof2024sales,willlikelydrivefutureupside.We
forecastNaura’srevenuetogrowatahigher-than-peers’avg.rateof30%to
RMB38.9bnin2025E,implyinga6%sharegainbasedonSEMI’sforecast.
MaintainBUYwithTPunchangedatRMB512.WeviewNauraasthebest-
positionedplayerinChina’sSMElandscape,givenitscomprehensiveproduct
suite,growingindustrypartnerships,andrisingexposuretoadvanced
processnodes.Weslightlylower2025ENPby2%onGPMrevisionwhile
maintainingrevenueforecast.Thestockiscurrentlytradingat31.2x25EP/E.
TPisbasedon36.8x25EP/E,closeto1SDabove3-yrhist.avg.of31.2x,
aswebelievethereisongoingreratingofthesectoramidincreasing
geopoliticaluncertainties.TPreflects1.1xPEGand18%upside.Potential
risks:decliningdomesticcapexandintensifiedcompetition.