【行业研究报告】美团-W-Proactively responding to competition in food delivery market

27May2025
27May2025
CMBInternationalGlobalMarkets|EquityResearch|CompanyUpdate
Meituan(3690HK)
Proactivelyrespondingtocompetitioninfood
deliverymarket
Meituanreported(26May)its1Q25results:revenuewasRMB86.6bn,up18%
YoY,1%higherthanbothourforecastandBloombergconsensusestimate,
whileadj.NPreachedRMB10.9bn,up46%YoY,andwas12/13%higherthan
ourforecast/consensusestimates.TheRMB13.5bnOPforthecorelocal
commerce(CLC)segmentwas10%betterthanconsensus,mainlyattributable
tothebeatinOPoffooddelivery(FD)businessaidedbyoptimizationinuser
subsidy,inourview.Sincecompetitionisgearingupforthefooddelivery
business,andindustryplayersaredeployingmoreresourcestoacceleratethe
developmentofinstantretailbusiness,Meituanisproactivelyrespondingand
tradingoffshort-termprofitabilitytoenhanceuserstickiness,torideonthetide
ofacceleratedindustrypenetration.Meanwhile,Meituanremainscommittedto
investininternationalexpansiontodrivelong-termrevenueandearnings
growth.WeremainpositiveonMeituan’scompetitiveedgeintheFDindustry,
andbelieveindustrycompetitionshouldreturntorationalityinduecourse,but
therewillbealackofvisibilityintheshortterm.Welowerour2025-2027E
revenue/adj.NPforecastsby1-2%/11-21%toaccountfortheadditional
investmentintheFDbusiness,andincrementalinvestmenttosupportoverseas
expansionoftheFDbusiness.OurDCF-basedTPwascutby9%toHK$181.6
(previous:HK$200.20),translatinginto25x2025EadjustedPE.MaintainBUY.
Proactivelyrespondtocompetitionandtargettomaintainmarket
share.CLCsegmentrev/OPwasRMB64.3bn/13.5bnin1Q25,up18%/39%
YoY,2%/10%betterthanconsensus,thankstobetter-than-expectedUE
expansionofFDaidedbyoptimizationinusersubsidy.However,with
increasingindustrycompetition,weexpectMeituantorespondactivelyand
maintainmarketshareinbothFDandinstantretailmarketsintheshort
term.Thatsaid,weexpectsolidrevenueandearningsgrowthforthein-
storehotel&travel(ISHT)segmenttobuffersomeoftheinvestment
impactsintheshortterm.WeforecastCLCtoinkrevenue/OPof
RMB66.7bn/13.6bn,implyingYoYgrowthof10%/-11%in2Q25E.
Newinitiatives:1Qlossinlinewithexpectation,determinedtodrive