【行业研究报告】亿航智能-1Q25 results below expectations due to delay of product delivery; Expect recovery in 2Q25E

27May202527May2025CMBInternationalGlobalMarkets|EquityResearch|CompanyUpdateEHangHoldings(EHUS)1Q25resultsbelowexpectationsduetodelayofproductdelivery;Expectrecoveryin2Q25EEHang’selectricverticaltake-offandlanding(eVTOL)aircraftsdeliverysurprisinglydeclined58%YoYin1Q25toonly11units,duetocertaindelayofdelivery.Managementexplainedthatthedelaywasduetoweather,CNYseasonality,aswellasthetimeneededforoperatorcertificates(OC)approval.EHangisconfidentofachievingarecoveryofsalesindeliveryin2Q25E.EHangmaintainsthetargettoachieverevenueofRMB900mnin2025E(97%YoYgrowth)anda40%increaseinSG&Aexpense.WemaintainourviewthatEHanghasthefirst-moveradvantagegiventhatitisthefirstplayerinChinatoobtainthethreeessentialcertificatesforthemassproductionofeVTOLaircraft,aswellOCforitstwooperatingsubsidiaries.Ourearningsforecastfor2025E-27Eisunchanged.MaintainBUYwithunchangedTPofUS$30,basedon15x2025EP/S.Keyhighlightsin1Q25results.Revenuedeclined58%YoYtoRMB26mn,duetoa58%YoYdeclineintheeVTOLaircraftdelivery(to11units).Grossmarginslightlyexpanded0.6pptsYoYto62.4%.SG&AandR&Dexpenseratioincreasedsubstantiallyduetothedeclineinrevenue.Helpedbya4xYoYincreaseinnetfinanceincome(toRMB11mn)followingafund-raisinglastyear,thenetlossin1Q25onlyexpandedby23%YoYtoRMB78mn.EHang’sinventoriesincreasedby44%toRMB109mnasatMar2025(fromDec2024),whichwebelievewaslargelyduetotheshipmentdelay.EHangmaintainedanetcashpositionasatMar2025.VT35eVTOLthenextkeyproduct.VT35isthenext-generationlong-rangelift-and-cruisepilotlesseVTOL(anupgradedversionofVT30).VT35iscurrentlyintheprocessofapplyingforcertificationinChina,andtheCAAChasacceptedtheapplicationforitsTypeCertification(TC).EHangplanstolaunchVT35in3Q25E.Operatingbusinesswillbelaunchedgradually.InMar,EHangobtainedtheOCforitssubsidiaryinGuangdongandJVinHefei.Managementrevealedthatitisstillinprogresstocarryoutcommercialoperationassafetyisthetoppriority.Withmoreoperatingdataandexperience,commercialoperationisexpectedtostartinafewmonths,accordingtothemanagement.TargetPriceUS$30.00Up/Downside76.9%CurrentPriceUS$16.96ChinaCapitalGoodsWayneFUNG,CFA(852)39000826waynefung@cmbi.com.hkStockDataMktCap(US$mn)1,073.3Avg3mthst/o(US$mn)23.352wHigh/Low(US$)26.45/11.59TotalIssuedShares(mn)63.3Source:FactSetShareholdingStructureHuazhiHu30.7%Source:SECSharePerformanceAbsoluteRelative1-mth4.6%-3.1%3-mth-32.8%-30.3%6-mth20.6%24.1%Source:FactSet12-mthPricePerformanceSource:FactSetRelatedreport:Obtainedthefirst-everOCforcommercialoperations–30Mar2025(link)Netlossin4Q24furthernarrowed;targettoachieve97%revenuegrowthin2025E–12Mar2025(link)FirstmoverineVTOLsettorideonthemomentumoflow-altitudeeconomy–25Feb2025(link)EarningsSummary(YE31Dec)FY23AFY24AFY25EFY26EFY27ERevenue(RMBmn)1174568981,3411,645YoYgrowth(%)165.0288.597.049.322.7Adjustednetprofit(RMBmn)(301.7)(229.8)(64.0)178.4246.3EPS(Reported)(RMBcents)(496.82)(363.08)(101.14)281.92389.20YoYgrowth(%)nananana38.1ConsensusEPS(RMB)nana1.073.39naP/S(x)65.716.98.65.84.7P/E(x)nsnsns43.331.3P/B(x)36.18.18.77.25.9Yield(%)0.00.00.00.10.2ROE(%)(178.9)(39.3)(6.9)18.220.7Netgearing(%)(68.1)(54.0)(70.2)(65.3)(67.0)Source:Companydata,Bloomberg,CMBIGMestimates