【行业研究报告】阿里巴巴-Quick commerce investment peaked out;accelerating AI adoption

10Oct202510Oct2025CMBInternationalGlobalMarkets|EquityResearch|CompanyUpdateAlibaba(BABAUS)Alibaba(BABAUS)-Quickcommerceinvestmentpeakedout;acceleratingAIadoptionQuickcommerceinvestmentpeakedout;acceleratingAIadoptionFor2QFY26E(Marchyear-end),weexpectAlibabaGroupHolding(Alibaba)todeliverrevenuegrowthof2%YoY,broadlyinlinewithBloombergconsensus,withcustomermanagementrevenue(CMR)andCloudIntelligenceGroup(CIG)revenuegrowthstandingat10%and30%,respectively.AlthoughwehavebakedintheRMB37.4bnimpactonadjustedEBITAfrominvestmentinquickcommerce(QC)business,webelievetheinvestmentshouldhavepeakedoutin2QFY26anditsimpactonearningswillstarttofadein3QFY26EasQCisontracktohalveuniteconomicslossbyend-Oct2025.Wefine-tuneourtargetpricetoUS$209.4(wasUS$210.3)toreflectadjustmentsinearningsforecast.AlibabaremainsoneofthekeybeneficiariesundertheAItheme,inourview,andbothitscapexinvestmentandinvestmenttoaccelerateAIadoptioninternallyandexternallyshouldpropelrevenueandearningsgrowthoverthelongrun.MaintainBUY.2QFY26preview.WeestimateAlibabaachieved2QFY26revenueofRMB241.2bn,up2%YoY,broadlyinlinewithBloombergconsensus,andadjustedEBITAofRMB6.1bn,down85%YoYduetotheinvestmentinQC,andinvestmenttoaccelerateAIadoptioninvariousAI-nativeandAI-empoweredappssuchasQuarkandAmap.Wearelookingfornon-GAAPnetprofitofRMB11.2bnfor2QFY26,down69%YoY.Quickcommerceinvestmentlikelypeakedout.ForAlibabaChinaE-commerceGroup(ACEG)segment,weareestimating10%YoYgrowthinrevenue,andadjustedEBITAofRMB8.7bn,withinwhichwehavebakedinanRMB37.4bndragfrominvestmentinQC.WithinACEG,wearelookingfor10%YoYgrowthforCMR,backedby8%YoYincreaseinGMVandincreaseintakeratedrivenbyariseinpenetrationofQuanzhantui.Cloudrevenuegrowthcouldfurtheraccelerate.Wearelookingfor30%YoYrevenuegrowthforCIGin2QFY26(1QFY26:26%),aidedbyboththeincreasedadoptionofAI-relatedproductsanddigitalizationdemand.Inaddition,weestimateadjustedEBITAofRMB3.4bnforCIG,translatinginto8.8%adjustedEBITAmargin(2QFY25:9.0%).Althoughcapexinvestmentmayseesomefluctuationsbetweenquarters,thethree-yearcapexplanofRMB380bniswellontrack,inourview,andourforecastof30%revenueCAGRforCIGoverFY25-28Eremainsunchanged.AcceleratingAIadoptionacrossbusinesses.AlibabaisescalatingitsinvestmentinAI-nativeappsandAI-empoweredapps,suchasAmapandDingTalk,whichwilllikelydragnear-termearningsgrowthbutshouldbenefitlong-termrevenueandearningsgrowth,inourview.WeestimateadjustedEBITAlossgeneratedfromAllOtherssegmenttoreachRMB5.0bnin2QFY26,wideningfromRMB1.4bnin1QFY26.TargetPriceUS$209.40(PreviousTPUS$210.30)Up/Downside20.6%CurrentPriceUS$173.68ChinaInternetSaiyiHE,CFA(852)39161739hesaiyi@cmbi.com.hkYeTAO,CFAfranktao@cmbi.com.hkWentaoLU,CFAluwentao@cmbi.com.hkJoannaMa(852)37618838joannama@cmbi.com.hkStockDataMktCap(US$mn)406,812.0Avg3mthst/o(US$mn)746.252wHigh/Low(US$)189.34/80.53TotalIssuedShares(mn)2342.3Source:FactSetShareholdingStructureJPMorgan2.3%ParufamLimited0.8%Source:HKExSharePerformanceAbsoluteRelative1-mth20.7%14.7%3-mth62.9%45.9%6-mth66.7%18.7%Source:FactSet12-mthPricePerformanceSource:FactSetEarningsSummary(YE31Mar)FY24AFY25AFY26EFY27EFY28ERevenue(RMBmn)941,168996,3471,026,0031,139,6101,257,614YoYgrowth(%)8.35.93.011.110.4Netprofit(RMBmn)79,741.0129,470.0103,346.6128,220.0167,928.7Adjustednetprofit(RMBmn)158,359.0158,095.0107,915.6146,453.7186,792.9YoYgrowth(%)10.0(0.2)(31.7)35.727.5EPS(Adjusted)(RMB)62.7767.3147.3666.2784.52ConsensusEPS(RMB)na65.4150.2271.1985.63P/E(x)39.222.527.321.316.3Source:Companydata,Bloomberg,CMBIGMestimates