【行业研究报告】赛默飞世尔科技-Strong 3Q25 performance; raising full-year guidance

24Oct202524Oct2025CMBInternationalGlobalMarkets|EquityResearch|CompanyUpdateThermoFisher(TMOUS)ThermoFisher(TMOUS)-Strong3Q25performance;raisingfull-yearguidanceStrong3Q25performance;raisingfull-yearguidanceThermoFisher(TMO)reportedcontinuouslyimprovedfinancialsfor3Q25,withrevenueincreasingby5.0%YoYandadj.EPSrisingby9.7%YoY.Revenueandadj.EPSin3Q25beatBBGconsensusby1.8%and5.4%,respectively.Despiteongoingmacroeconomicuncertainties,TMOdeliveredstrongoperationalexecution,effectivelymitigatingthenegativeimpactsoftariffs.Thestrong3Q25performanceenabledmgmt.tofurtherraiseitsfull-yearguidance,expectingfull-yearrevenuetogrowby2.8%to3.8%YoY(previously1.7%to3.1%),withadj.EPSgrowingby3.4%to4.6%YoY(previously1.6%to4.5%).Mgmt.alsoreiterateditslong-termorganicrevenuegrowthtargetof3%-6%.Continuedtoobserveencouragingsignalsofimprovingdemand.In3Q25,revenuefrompharmaandbiotechcustomersdeliveredmid-single-digitYoYgrowth,extendingtherecoverytrendin2Q25,whichwasprimarilydrivenbythebioproduction,analyticalinstruments,andresearch&safetychannelbusinesses.Thenewly-launchedbundledsolutionthatcombinesitsclinicalCROandCDMOcapabilitiescontinuedtogainstrongtractionamongbiotechclients,andisincreasinglyattractingattentionfrombigpharmas.Asaresult,theclinicalCROreturnedtolow-single-digitgrowthin3Q25,asequentialimprovementover2Q25.Encouragingly,inChina’smarket,demandfromacademicandgovernmentbenefitedfromstimulusmeasures,whilepharmaandbiotechdemandshowedmodestgrowth.Macroenvironmentshowingsignsofstabilization.In2025,theglobalpharmaceuticalsectorsfacedmultiplepolicydisruptions,includingtheescalationofglobaltarifftensionsanddomesticpolicyshiftsintheUS.However,astheUSgovernmentreachedpricingagreementswithcertainbigpharmasandglobaltradepolicybecamemorepredictable,mgmt.ofTMOnotedthatcustomersarenowmoreconfidentinnavigatingtheevolvingenvironment.Atthesametime,greaterbudgetclarity,suchasimprovedvisibilityinNIHfunding,ishelpingstabilizedemandfromgovernmentandacademicclientsintheUS.Thiscustomersegment’srevenuein3Q25remainedstablecomparedto2Q25,suggestingpossiblesignsofrecovery.Well-positionedtobenefitfromthetrendofonshoremanufacturingintheUS.Amidthecurrentgeopoliticalenvironment,thereisaclearuptickinbuildingmanufacturingcapacityintheUS.Whethergreenfieldorbrownfieldinvestments,TMO’sbusinesses,suchasbioproductionandanalyticalinstruments,areexpectedtocaptureincrementaldemandfromsuchtrend.However,giventhelongleadtimesassociatedwithfacilityconstructionintheUS,thedemandisexpectedtomaterializein2027-28.TMO’sfacilitiesintheUSareplayingacriticalroleinenablingclientstorapidlyscaletheironshorecapacities.InSeptember,TMOcompletedtheacquisitionofSanofi’sNewJerseyfacilities,aimingtoexpandTMO’sUSDPmanufacturingcapacity.MaintainBUY.WeraiseourTPfromUS$553toUS$654(WACC:7.84%,terminalgrowth:2.0%)toreflectourimprovedoutlookonmacroenvironment.Weforecastitsrevenuetogrowby3.6%/5.2%/6.5%YoYandadjustedEPStoincreaseby3.7%/8.7%/11.1%YoYin2025E/26E/27E,respectively.TargetPriceUS$654.00(PreviousTPUS$553.00)Up/Downside15.3%CurrentPriceUS$567.20ChinaHealthcareJillWU,CFA(852)39000842jillwu@cmbi.com.hkBenchenHUANG,CFAhuangbenchen@cmbi.com.hkStockDataMktCap(US$mn)213,670.4Avg3mthst/o(US$mn)339.252wHigh/Low(US$)606.74/390.26TotalIssuedShares(mn)376.7Source:FactSetShareholdingStructureVanguard9.0%BlackRock7.2%Source:BloombergSharePerformanceAbsoluteRelative1-mth20.7%20.0%3-mth21.5%15.4%6-mth31.4%5.4%Source:FactSet12-mthPricePerformanceSource:FactSetEarningsSummary(YE31Dec)FY23AFY24AFY25EFY26EFY27ERevenue(US$mn)42,85742,87944,44246,75149,772YoYgrowth(%)(4.6)0.13.65.26.5Adjustednetprofit(US$mn8,3648,3818,5529,16410,035YoYgrowth(%)(8.7)0.22.07.29.5EPS(Adjusted)(US$)21.5621.8822.7024.6727.41YoYgrowth(%)(7.3)1.53.78.711.1ConsensusEPS(US$)nana22.6724.6027.04P/E(Adjusted)(x)26.325.925.023.020.7Source:Companydata,Bloomberg,CMBIGMestimates