【行业研究报告】富途控股-Marketing feedback: short-term views mixed; 3Q EPS upside to reinforce long-term convictions

LOmanagersshowedinterestsbutheldmixedshort-termviews.Recent
regulatorydevelopments,includingatighteraccountopeningprocessformainland
regulatorydevelopments,includingatighteraccountopeningprocessformainland
clientsinHKandtheCRSglobaltaxationplan,haveraisedconcernsamongsome
long-onlymanagersregardingregulatoryuncertaintyfromChina.Weregardthese
concernsoverblownwithlimitedlikelyimpactsonFutu’searnings.Asof2Q25,the
numberoffundedaccountsinmainlandaccountedfor~17%(CMBIest)oftotal,
withtheirAUMcontributing25%-30%ofGroup’stotal.Weseelimitedimpactdue
to1)Futu’sdiversifiedmarketexposureisfundamentallydifferentfromthreeyears
ago,forwhichthenumberofoverseasfundedaccountsexceeded50%oftotalfor
thefirsttimein1H25;2)theCRStaxregimeappliestoallfinancialinstitutionsin
HK,meaningshiftingassetsfromFututootherplatformswouldnotcircumvent
regulatoryoversight.Futu’scompetitivepricingandsuperiortradingexperience
makeitdifficulttoreplaceinourview;3)theonshoretaxauthorityrequestsself-
declarationoncapitalgainsfromhistoricaloverseasinvestmentincomeinthepast
threeyears(FY22-24).Eventhoughonshoreinvestorsmanagedtotransferout
theirassets,thehistoricalrecordstilllikelytorequirethemtoself-declare.Wethink
thistaxobligationwilldevelopintoa“newnorm”foronshoreinvestors,andFutuis
positionedtoretainitshigh-net-worthclients,withoutmeaningfulAUMshareloss.
3Q25EEPSshowspotentialupside.HKandUSstockmarketssustainedstrong
turnovermomentumin3Q25,rising30%/6%QoQtoHK$18.6tn/US$53tn.TheHSI
andNASDAQindexgained12%/11%QoQwiththeVIXindexdown2.7%QoQ,
supportingfavourablemark-to-marketcapitalgains.Weexpectnewpayingclients
tobeontrackmeetingthetargetof800k,whilenetassetinflowsmaymoderate
fromahigh2Q25base.Weanticipatetradingvolumetosustainasequentialrise
drivenbyrobustclientAUMandhightradingvelocity.The3MHIBORrebounded
backtoabove3.5%asofSep,alleviatingsomeconcernstonetinterestincome.
Inourmodel,weprojectNIItosequentiallydropin3Q25partlyduetotheratecut
cycle.Costpernewclientacquisition(CAC)shouldremainbelowtheguidanceof
HK2.5k-3k.Weseeupsideto3Q25EEPSfromhighertradingvelocity(2H25E:
14xvs.1H25:16.1x)andinterestincomefromthecurrentlevelbakedinourmodel.
Risk-rewardremainsattractive.Futu’sADRistradingat20x/18xFY25/26EP/E,
buoyedbythetarifftruceandimprovingliquidityfromtheFedratecuts.Evenifthe
marketbeginspricingin3Q25earningsrevision,weviewcurrentvaluationasun-
demanding.Onarelativebasis,Futu’s12MforwardP/Ehastradedat15x-20xP/E
sinceJuly2025withanavg.three-yearROEat25.2%,comparedtopeeraverages
of36x/31xFY25/26EP/Eand19.7%ROE(Fig.6).Iftakingintoaccountofourbull-
casescenario,whichimplies21%upsidetoFY26Eearnings,thecurrentshare
pricecorrespondsto16.5xFY26EP/E,stillbelowitsfive-yearaverageof18.6x.
ReiterateBUYwithournewTPatUS$226,whichimplies26x/23xFY25E/26EP/E.