【行业研究报告】现在服务公司-3Q25 results: solid cRPO growth and margin expansion on positive AI progress

31Oct202531Oct2025CMBInternationalGlobalMarkets|EquityResearch|CompanyUpdateServiceNow(NOWUS)ServiceNow(NOWUS)-3Q25results:solidcRPOgrowthandmarginexpansiononpositiveAIprogress3Q25results:solidcRPOgrowthandmarginexpansiononpositiveAIprogressServiceNowannounced3Q25results:totalrevenuegrewby22%YoYtoUS$3.41bn,largelyinlinewithconsensusestimate;non-GAAPoperatingincomeincreasedby31%YoYtoUS$1.14bn,11%aheadofconsensusestimate,mainlythankstotheAI-drivenefficiencygainsandprudentexpensecontrol.Duringtheperiod,cRPOincreasedby21%YoYandbeattheguidanceby250bps,drivenbythebetter-than-expectedperformanceacrossNowAssist,U.SFederalvertical,andWorkflowDataFabricetc.ManagementraisedFY25subscriptionrevenuegrowthguidanceto+20.5%YoYandnon-GAAPOPMguidanceto31%(previous:+20%YoYand30.5%).WeraiseFY25-27Enon-GAAPoperatingincomeforecastby1-4%,inviewofthestrongtoplineperformanceandimprovedefficiency.WerollforwardourvaluationwindowtoFY26,andfine-tuneourtargetpricetoUS$1,180basedon45xFY26EEV/EBITDA(previous:US$1,175basedon55xFY25EEV/EBITDA)whichismorealignedwithsectorvaluation.MaintainBUY.SolidcRPOgrowthonstrongexecution.Subscriptionrevenueincreasedby21.5%YoYtoUS$3.30bn,andcRPOgrewby21%YoYtoUS$11.35bnin3Q25.Byverticals,netnewACVoftransportation&logistics/retail&hospitality/educationverticalsgrewbyover90/50/50%YoYrespectivelyin3Q25.U.S.federalbusinessisalsobetterthanexpected,withnetnewACVupbyover30%YoY,mainlydrivenbythesoliddemandforNowAssistandAIControlTower.For4Q25E,managementguidedcRPOtoincreaseby19%YoYinconstantcurrency,supportedbyastrongdealpipeline,butpartiallyoffsetbytheuncertaintyinthepublicsector.AIproductACVtosurpassUS$500mnbyFY25.Thecompany’sAIproductsnowtargettoexceedUS$500mnACVbyend-FY25,upfromUS$250mnACVin1Q25.NowAssistcontinueditsstrongmomentumin3Q25,with12dealsoverUS$1mninnetnewACV.ThenetnewACVofITSMPlus/HRPlus/ITOMPlusproductsgrewbyover100%/100%/400%QoQin3Q25.AIAgentAssistconsumptionhasincreasedbyover55xsincetheendofMay2025.AIControlTower,thenewAIproducttohelpenterprisegovernAIworkflows,sawitsdealvolumemorethanquadrupledQoQin3Q25.Overall,thecompanyiswellontracktoachieveitsUS$1bnACVtargetfortheAIproductsbyFY26.MarginexpansiononAI-drivenefficiencygains.Non-GAAPOPMexpandedby2.3pptsYoYto33.5%in3Q25,mainlyattributabletosolidrevenuegrowthandAI-drivenefficiencygains.ThecompanycontinuestodeployAIagentsacrossitsowndifferentbusinessworkflows,whichshouldfurtherdrivecostsavingandmarginimprovementin4Q25EandFY26E.Managementexpectsnon-GAAPOPMtoimproveby1.5pptYoYto31%inFY25E,andweexpectanother1pptmarginexpansioninFY26EsupportedbyinternalAIdeployment,expensecontrolandoperatingleverage.TargetPriceUS$1180.00(PreviousTPUS$1175.00)Up/Downside29.4%CurrentPriceUS$911.70ChinaInternetSaiyiHE,CFA(852)39161739hesaiyi@cmbi.com.hkWentaoLU,CFAluwentao@cmbi.com.hkYeTAO,CFAfranktao@cmbi.com.hkJoannaMa(852)37618838joannama@cmbi.com.hkStockDataMktCap(US$mn)191,457.0Avg3mthst/o(US$mn)541.752wHigh/Low(US$)1170.39/721.65TotalIssuedShares(mn)210.0Source:FactSetShareholdingStructureBlackRock8.8%TheVanguardGroup8.7%Source:CompanydataSharePerformanceAbsoluteRelative1-mth-0.9%-6.3%3-mth-6.7%-17.7%6-mth-4.5%-30.5%Source:FactSet12-mthPricePerformanceSource:FactSetEarningsSummary(YE31Dec)FY23AFY24AFY25EFY26EFY27ERevenue(US$mn)8,97110,98413,23815,62918,380Grossmargin(%)78.679.278.178.578.8Adjustednetprofit(US$mn)2,215.02,902.03,583.24,336.75,159.1EPS(Adjusted)(US$)10.8614.0917.3120.9524.92ConsensusEPS(US$)10.8614.0916.9519.9123.94P/S(x)21.317.414.512.310.4P/E(x)107.4131.897.975.258.8Source:Companydata,Bloomberg,CMBIGMestimates