【行业研究报告】亚马逊-Acceleration in cloud revenue growth better than expected

AccelerationincloudrevenuegrowthbetterthanexpectedAmazonannounced(31OctHKT)3Q25results:revenuewasUS$180.2bn,up13.4%YoY(3Q24:11.0%),2/1%betterthanourforecast/Bloombergconsensusestimate,andtotaloperatingprofitwasUS$17.4bn,flatYoY.Excludingtheimpactoftwospecialcharges(US$2.5bnrelatedtoalegalsettlementwiththeFederalTradeCommissionandUS$1.8bninestimatedseverancecostrelatedtoplannedroleeliminations),OPwouldreachUS$21.7bn(vsconsensusatUS$19.8bn),up25%YoY.In3Q25,YoYrevenuegrowthofAWSacceleratedto20.2%(2Q25:17.5%;3Q24:19.1%),2pptsaheadofconsensus,drivenbystrongdemandandrelaxationofsupplyconstraints,andtheoptimizationincosttoserveaswellassolidadsrevenuegrowth(24%YoY)continuetodrivemarginexpansionofbothNorthAmerica(NA)andInternationalbusiness(afterexcludingimpactofspecialcharges).ManagementguidedforUS$206.0bn-213.0bnrevenuefor4Q25E(consensus:US$208.5bn),implying10-13%YoYgrowth,andUS$21-26bnoperatingprofit(consensus:US$23.8bn).For2025E,weraiserevenueforecastby1%toaccountforbetter-than-expectedrevenuegrowthinbothAWSande-commercebusiness,butlowerOPby5%tofactorintheone-offcharges.WeliftTPby7%toUS$269.0,basedon17.5xEV/EBITDA(was17.0x),inlinewithtwo-yearaveragetradingrange.BUY.AWS:gradualrelaxationinsupplyconstraintsaidedaccelerationinrevenuegrowth.In3Q25,AWSinkedrevenueofUS$33.0bn,up20.2%revenuegrowth.In3Q25,AWSinkedrevenueofUS$33.0bn,up20.2%YoY,andOPforAWSsegmentwasUS$11.4bn,up9%YoYand3%betterthanconsensus,translatingintoa34.6%OPM(3Q24:38.1%;2Q25:32.9%).ForCapex,cashcapexplusfinanceleaseswasUS$34.2bnin3Q25(2Q25:US$31.4bn).Managementexpects2025EcapextoreachUS$125bn,andthetotalamounttoincreasefurtherin2026E.ManagementhighlightedthatthebacklogforAWShasreachedUS$200bnin3Q25,andthecompanyhasbeenacceleratingcapacitytofulfilthedemand.Amazonhasaddedmorethan3.8gigawattsofpowerinthepast12months,andexpectstoaddatleastanotheronegigawattofpowerin4Q25,andtodoubleoverallcapacitybytheendof2027.Marginexpansiontrendcontinuedfore-commercebusinessifexcludingone-offcharges.In3Q25,Amazon’sNAbusinessrecordedrevenueofUS$106.3bn,up11.2%YoY,1%betterthanconsensus.OPofNAsegmentwouldbeinlinewithconsensusifaddingbackUS$2.5bnlegalsettlementcharges.Forinternationalsegment,revenuewasUS$40.9bn,up14%YoY,inlinewithconsensus,andmanagementnotedthatOPMwouldhaveexpandedYoYifexcludingtheimpactforseverancecharges.UpdateonAIrelatedapplicationsandbusinessinitiatives:1)Trainium:Trainium2isnowamulti-billiondollarrevenuebusinessthatgrewby150%QoQ,andTrainium3,whichmanagementexpectstoachieve40%betterpriceperformancecomparedtothatofTrainium2,shouldpreviewbyend-2025withfullervolumescomingininthebeginningof2026;2)Rufus,theAI-poweredshoppingassistant,hashad250mnactivecustomersin2025withmonthlyusersup140%YoYin3Q25,andcustomersusingRufusduringashoppingtripbeing60%morelikelytocompleteapurchase;3)empoweringsellers:morethan1.3mnsellershaveusedAmazon’sGen-AIcapabilitiestomorequicklylaunchhighqualitylistings,andthistranslatesintobettertractionwithcustomers,andpropelsanincreaseinthird-partysellerunitmixby200bpsto62%in3Q25.