【行业研究报告】Coinbase Global Inc-A-3Q25 results beat on solid transaction business

3Q25resultsbeatonsolidtransaction
business
Coinbaseannounced3Q25results:netrevenuegrewby59%YoYand26%
QoQtoUS$1.79bn,3%aheadofconsensusestimate.Duringtheperiod,
adjustedEBITDAwasUS$801mn,upfromUS$512mn/449mnin2Q25/3Q24
andbeatingconsensusestimateofUS$704mn,mainlythankstothe
outperformanceoftopline.Lookinginto4Q25,managementguided1)
SubscriptionandServicesrevenueofUS$710-790mn(-5%-+6%QoQ)in4Q25,
mainlydrivenbythegrowthinUSDCmktcap,butpartiallyoffsetbythedecline
ininterestrate;2)transactionrevenueofUS$385mninOctober,maintaininga
solidtrend.WeliftFY25-27Etotalrevenueforecastby6-10%toreflectthesolid
transactionbusinessandopportunitiessuchasstablecoin,paymentandthe
EverythingExchange.WerolloverourvaluationwindowtoFY26Eandfine-tune
ourSOTP-derivedtargetpricetoUS$410.0(previous:US$405.0).Maintain
BUY.
Solidtransactionbusinessdrivenbyexpandingassetofferings.
Transactionrevenuegrewby37%QoQtoUS$1.05bnin3Q25.Totaltrading
Transactionrevenuegrewby37%QoQtoUS$1.05bnin3Q25.Totaltrading
volumewasupby24%QoQtoUS$295bnin3Q25,underperformingthe
global/UScryptomarkettradingvolumegrowth(+38%/+29%QoQ),mainly
duetothedeclineinvolumefromstablecoinpairs.Consumertransaction
revenuegrewby30%QoQtoUS$844mnin3Q25,mainlydrivenbythe
advancedtradingvolumesandexpandingtradableassets.Institutional
transactionrevenuewasupby122%QoQtoUS$135mnin3Q25,drivenby
thecloseofDeribitacquisition(contributedUS$52mnofrevenue)andthe
incentivecut.SubscriptionandServicesrevenuegrewby14%QoQto
US$747mnin3Q25,mainlyfuelledbythegrowthofaverageUSDCmarket
cap(+11%QoQ)andblockchainrewardsrevenue(+28%QoQ).
Emergingnewgrowthopportunities.Lookingahead,weexpectseveral
opportunitieswithsubstantiallong-termpotential:1)EverythingExchange:
Coinbaseintegrateddecentralizedexchangetoaddover40,000tradable
assetsinitsconsumerappin3Q25.Inthefuture,thecompanyplansto
introducemoreassetclassessuchasequities,commodityandprediction
market;2)Payment:CoinbasebegantorolloutPaymentAPIsin3Q25,a
stablecoinpaymentsolution.Thecompanyalsocooperateswithfinancial
institutionslikeCititodevelopdigitalassetsandstablecoinpayment
solutions;3)Cryptoasaservice/app:BaseChainnetworkactivitygrewQoQ
drivenbytrading,socialandlendingapps.BaseApp,anonchainhubfor
trading/miniapps/social,enteredbetain3Q25withstrongadoption,which
willalsocreatemoremonetizationopportunitiesinthelongterm.
Marginexpansiononoperatingleverage.AdjustedEBITDAmargin
improvedby6pptsYoYto43%in3Q25,thankstothestrongrevenuegrowth
andoperatingmargin.Thecompanysteppedupinvestmentintalentand
acquisitiontocapturenewopportunities,withR&D/G&Aexpensesupby
14/27%in3Q25.ForFY26,thecompanyplanstofocusmoreonexecution,
andexpectstheopexgrowthratetoslowdowncomparedwiththatin4Q25.