【行业研究报告】禾赛-Solid 3Q results; business development momentum remains strong

Solid3Qresults;businessdevelopment
momentumremainsstrong
HesaiGroup(Hesai)released(11Nov)3Q25financialresults:totalrevenue
wasRMB795.4mn,up47%YoY,andwas1.4%aheadofBloombergconsensus
forecast;non-GAAPnetprofitwasRMB288mn,orRMB140mnifexcludingone-
offgainsfromequityinvestmentinanearly-stagetechcompany,aheadof
consensusatRMB61mn,aidedbythebeatinrevenue,andbetter-than-
expectedGPM(42.1%vsconsensusat40.9%).Consideringthebeatin3Q25
results,managementlifted2025EGAAPNPguidancetoRMB350mn-450mn
(fromRMB200-350mn).Managementremainsupbeatonbusiness
developmentoutlook,andguidedforatleast2mn-3mntotalLiDARshipment
volumein2026E,orpotentiallyhigherifL3adoptionbecomesanindustry-wide
trend,inwhichcaseitexpectsshipmentvolumeofRoboticsLiDARtodouble
YoYin2026Ecomparedtothatin2025E.WeremainpositivethatHesaiis
poisedtogrowalongsidetherisingdemandforLiDARproducts.Moreusecases
inroboticsandindustrialmarketsshouldpropelfurtherTAMexpansionforHesai
overthelongrun,inourview.Werollovervaluationwindowto2026E,andour
newTPofUS$26.7isbasedon5.3x2026EP/S(vs.prior4.8x2025EP/S),a
10%premiumtocomparableindustrypeerswhichinourviewcanbejustified
byHesai’scompetitiveadvantageandsolidrevenueandearningsgrowth
outlook.MaintainBUY.
StrongLiDARshipmentgrowthsustaineddrivenbyATX.Theno.of
totalLiDARshipmentsreached441.4kin3Q25,up229%YoY,among
totalLiDARshipmentsreached441.4kin3Q25,up229%YoY,among
whichtheno.ofADASLiDARshipmentsreached380.8k,up193%YoY,
andtheno.ofroboticsLiDARshipmentsreached60.6k.Averageselling
price(ASP)forLiDARwasRMB1.8kin3Q25,down10%QoQ,inourview
mainlyduetoproductmixchangesasASPofATXproductsislowerthan
thatofAT128.WearelookingforLiDARshipmentsof1.6mnin2025E,
representing218%YoYgrowth,drivenbybetter-than-expectedmarket
adoptionofATX.Hesaihassecureddesignwinsfrombothofitstop2ADAS
customersacrossalltheir2026models,featuring100%lidaradoption.Also,
Hesai’shigh-endETXLiDARsecuredadesignwinwithatop3domestic
NEVautomaker(whichisanexistingcustomerofHesai),pairedwith
multipleFTXunits,andmassproductionisslatedforlate2026orearly
2027.AlthoughASPislikelytocontinuedecliningin2026Eowingtoproduct
mixshift,thesolidgrowthinshipmentvolumeshouldsupportHesai’s
revenuegrowth,inourview.
GPMstayedatahealthylevelwhilecostoptimizationdrovemargin
expansion.GPMfor3Q25reached42.1%,betterthanconsensusat
40.9%,whichweattributedtobetter-than-expectedGPMofATXproducts.
Operatingexpenses(S&M,G&A,andR&D)declined8%YoYin3Q25.As
apercentageofrevenue,S&M/G&A/R&Dexpenseswere5.5/9.2/25.0%in
3Q25,optimizedfrom8.6/14.2/40.8%in3Q24,andoperatingmargin
improvedto9.7%in3Q25(3Q24:-14.3%).
TPofUS$26.7basedon5.3x2026EP/S.Ourtargetmultipleof5.3x2026E
P/Sis10%premiumcomparedtotheindustryaverage,butinourviewcould
bejustifiedbyHesai’srobustrevenueandearningsgrowthoutlook,and
strongcompetitiveadvantage.Wearelookingfor47%2024-2027ECAGR
forrevenueand41%YoYgrowthfornon-GAAPNPin2026E(or96%YoY
ifexcludingone-offgainsfromequityinvestmentin2025E).