【行业研究报告】吉利汽车-We see margin lift potential on a solid 3Q25

18Nov2025
CMBInternationalGlobalMarkets|EquityResearch|CompanyUpdate
GeelyAutomobile(175HK)
Weseemarginliftpotentialonasolid3Q25
MaintainBUY.WeviewGeely’s3Q25earningsassolidandwebelieveGeely
couldaccomplishitsbothsalesandGPMtargetsinFY25.Weareoftheopinion
thatGeely’ssalesvolumegrowthcouldcontinueatleastthroughoutFY26,given
itscurrentincomprehensiveNEVmodelline-upandwell-receivednewmodels
includingtheGalaxyM9,A7andZeekr9X.Wealsoexpectthesenewmodels,
alongwithrisingNEVexports,toliftitsmarginsinFY26.WebelieveGeelyis
wellpositionedamongitspeerswithattractivevaluation.
Solid3Q25earnings.Geely’s3Q25revenuerose48%YoYamidaYoY
salesvolumegrowthrateof43%,orabout6%higherthanourpriorforecast,
salesvolumegrowthrateof43%,orabout6%higherthanourpriorforecast,
mainlyduetoZeekr’smoreresilient-than-expectedpricing.GPMin3Q25
widenedby1pptYoYbutnarrowedby0.5pptsQoQto16.6%,or0.7ppts
lowerthanourprojection.SG&AandR&Dcombinedratiowasabout12.4%
in3Q25,0.2pptslowerthanourforecast.Thesekeymetrics,alongwith
better-than-expectedforexlossandhighertaxrate,resultedinanin-linenet
profitofRMB3.8bnin3Q25.
Betterproductmixtoliftmarginsin4Q25andFY26.Weareoftheview
thatQoQGPMdeclinecouldbeshort-lived,ashigh-marginnewmodels,
includingtheZeekr9X,Lynk&Co900andGalaxyM9aretocontribute
moresalesvolumein4Q25andFY26.Weprojectthesalesvolumeofthese
threemodelscombinedtomorethandoubleYoYto285,000unitsinFY26
withagrossmarginrangeof20-31%.Therefore,weexpectGPMsin4Q25
andFY26tobe17.1%and17.8%,respectively.
RisingNEVexportstofuelsalesvolume,marginsinFY26.Geely’sNEV
exportsacceleratedfromAug2025,withanaveragemonthlyvolumeof
13,700unitsinAug-Oct2025,doubledfromtheaverageinJan-Jul2025,
aidedbytheGalaxyStarship7andZeekr7X.WeexpectGeely’sNEV
exportstoalmosttripleYoYto0.3mnunitsinFY26,asmoremodelsareset
tobesoldabroad.TheseexportscouldalsocontributehigherGPM.
Earnings/Valuation.WeprojectGeely’ssalesvolumeinFY25-26tobe
3.08mn/3.42mnunits,withabouthalfofgrowthinFY26fromexports.We
estimateFY25netprofittobeRMB17.4bn,implying4Q25netprofitforecast
ofRMB4.3bn.WereviseupFY26-27netprofitforecastsby7.5%/9.0%to
RMB20.0bn/RMB21.3bn,respectively.WemaintainourBUYratingand
targetpriceofHK$25.00,basedon12x(prior13x)ourFY26EP/E,toreflect
investors’recentconcernsaboutindustrywidesalesslowdownin2026.Key
risksincludelowersalesvolumeand/orgrossmarginthanweexpect,
especiallyfromnewNEVmodels,aswellasasectorde-rating.