【行业研究报告】阿里巴巴-Strong cloud revenue growth; still eyeing on synergy generated from quick commerce

26Nov202526Nov2025CMBInternationalGlobalMarkets|EquityResearch|CompanyUpdateAlibaba(BABAUS)Alibaba(BABAUS)-Strongcloudrevenuegrowth;stilleyeingonsynergygeneratedfromquickcommerceStrongcloudrevenuegrowth;stilleyeingonsynergygeneratedfromquickcommerceAlibaba2QFY26(Marchyear-end)revenuewasRMB247.8bn,up4.8%YoY,2.7/1.1%betterthanourforecast/Bloombergconsensus.Adj.EBITAin2QFY26wasRMB9.1bn,down78%YoYandwas36%lowerthanconsensus,duetoinvestmentinquickcommercebusiness,userexperience,andtechnology,butwasbetterthanourforecastatRMB6.1bn.Thecloudrevenuegrowthof34%YoYacceleratedfasterthanourexpectation/consensusat30/28%,andmanagementhighlightedstrongcustomerdemandwhichinourviewcouldsupportstrongcloudrevenuegrowthinthecomingquarters.However,managementisexpectingsomefluctuationsincustomermanagementrevenue(CMR)growthin3QFY26duetoahighbase.Themessagetosignificantlyreducelossofquickcommerce(QC)businessQoQin3Qwasinlinewithourexpectation,whileinvestorsarestilleyeingonmoreconcreteupdatesonsynergiesgeneratedfromQC,inourview.Wefine-tuneourSOTP-basedtargetpricetoUS$206.4(wasUS$209.4).WeremainpositivethatAlibabaisoneofthekeybeneficiariesundertheAItheme.MaintainBUY.Strongcloudrevenuegrowthaheadofmarketexpectation.CloudIntelligenceGroup(CIG)achievedrevenuegrowthof34.5%YoYin2QFY26(2QFY25:7.1%;1QFY26:25.8%),drivenbypubliccloudrevenuegrowth,includingtheincreasingadoptionofAI-relatedproducts.CapitalexpenditurewasRMB31.5bnin2QFY26(1QFY26:RMB38.7bn),andmanagementstressedthatithasdeployedc.RMB120bnincapitalexpendituretowardAIandcloudinfrastructureoverthepastfourquarters.Managementremainscommittedtoitsthree-yearCapexplanofRMB380bn,whilenotingthatthereisupsidepotentialtothisfiguregivenstrongcustomerdemand.SynergiesgeneratedfromQCremainskeytowatch.WithinAlibabaChinaE-commerceGroup(ACEG),CMRdeliveredgrowthof10.1%YoYin2QFY26,inlinewithourestimate,drivenbyGMVgrowthandimprovementoftakerate.Managementisexpectingashort-termfluctuationinYoYgrowthofCMRin3QFY26duetohighbaseeffect.RevenuefromQCwasRMB22.9bn,up60%YoY.RegardingsynergiesbetweenQCandconventionale-commerce,managementstressed:1)incrementalCMRcontributionduetoexpansioninuserbaseandimprovementinuseractiveness;and2)increaseincross-sellingtocategoriessuchasgroceries,healthcare,andsupermarketcategories.Forexample,FreshippoandTmallSupermarketsdailyordersonQCchannelhasgrown30%inNovMTD2025comparedtothatinAug2025.ManagementexpectsthelossofQCtosignificantlydecreaseQoQin3QFY26drivenbythereductioninUEloss,whichisinlinewithourexpectation,andwebelievemoreconcreteupdatesregardingsynergygenerationbetweenQCandconventionale-commercebusinessremainsvitalinthecomingquarters.TargetPriceUS$206.40(PreviousTPUS$209.40)Up/Downside31.5%CurrentPriceUS$157.01ChinaInternetSaiyiHE,CFA(852)39161739hesaiyi@cmbi.com.hkYeTAO,CFAfranktao@cmbi.com.hkWentaoLU,CFAluwentao@cmbi.com.hkJoannaMa(852)37618838joannama@cmbi.com.hkStockDataMktCap(US$mn)375,253.9Avg3mthst/o(US$mn)1,398.552wHigh/Low(US$)189.34/80.53TotalIssuedShares(mn)2390.0Source:FactSetShareholdingStructureJPMorgan2.3%ParufamLimited0.8%Source:HKExSharePerformanceAbsoluteRelative1-mth-10.1%-8.8%3-mth26.4%19.1%6-mth30.1%6.5%Source:FactSet12-mthPricePerformanceSource:FactSetEarningsSummary(YE31Mar)FY24AFY25AFY26EFY27EFY28ERevenue(RMBmn)941,168996,3471,036,6651,162,3881,287,557YoYgrowth(%)8.35.94.012.110.8Netprofit(RMBmn)79,741.0129,470.0116,479.2132,854.8174,144.2Adjustednetprofit(RMBmn)158,359.0158,095.0106,432.1150,523.1192,427.5YoYgrowth(%)10.0(0.2)(32.7)41.427.8EPS(Adjusted)(RMB)62.7767.3145.8965.5584.65ConsensusEPS(RMB)na65.4149.1767.2982.28P/E(x)35.220.222.219.314.5Source:Companydata,Bloomberg,CMBIGMestimates