【行业研究报告】蔚来-SW-Competition likely underestimated despite 3Q beat

MaintainHOLD.Despite3Q25GPMbeat,westillprojectanetlossin4Q25.
Wethinkthatmanagement’skeyassumptionforFY26Eunderestimates
competitionandsalescannibalization.WeprojectnetlossesinFY26-27Eto
narrowsignificantly,butsustainableprofitsareindoubt,inourview,which
meansNIO’sprofitabilitystilltrailsitspeers.
3Q25GPMbeatwithweak4Q25salesguidance.NIO’s3Q25revenue
wasinlinewithourpriorforecastwhileitsGPMwasabout3.2pptshigher
wasinlinewithourpriorforecastwhileitsGPMwasabout3.2pptshigher
thanourprojection.Thebeatwasprobablyduetohighermarginsfromthe
ES6,EC6,ET5andET5T.SG&AandR&Dexpensescombinedwere
aboutRMB120mnlowerthanourestimates.That,alongwithhigherGPM
andgreaterinvestmentincome,resultedinanetlossofRMB3.66bnin
3Q25,aboutRMB890mnnarrowerthanourforecast.Ontheotherhand,
thecompany’ssalesguidanceof120,000-125,000unitsfor4Q25was
lowerthanitsprevioustargetof150,000unitsduring2Q25earningscall.
4Q25breakevenstillunlikely.Webelievethatmanagementhasturned
morecautiousabout4Q25non-GAAPbreakevennowvs.2Q25earnings
call.WebelieveNIO’soverall4Q25salesguidanceandtheES8sales
targetimplyasalesvolumepeakinOct2025(11,722units)fortheOnvo
L90.Althoughwereviseupour4Q25GPMforecastto17.1%(withvehicle
GPMof17.9%,inlinewithitsguidanceof18%),westillestimateaGAAP
netlossofRMB1.6bnandanon-GAAPnetlossofRMB0.7bnin4Q25,as
webelieveitisunrealistictocontrolitsnon-GAAPSG&Aexpensesin4Q25
atasimilarlevelasin3Q25givenQoQsalesvolumegrowthof40+%.
LinearextrapolationisnotsuitablegivenChina’shighlycompetitive
autodynamics.ManagementaimstoturnprofitableinFY26Ewitha
vehicleGPMassumptionof20%,asitbelievesmorelarge-sizeSUVs(the
NIOES8,OnvoL90andthreenewmodelsinFY26E)wouldimprove
productmixnextyear.Suchassumptionhasakeyprerequisite:strong
salesvolume,whichrequiresverycompetitivepricinginChina.Asalmost
allChineseautomakershavelarge-sizeSUVmodelsonsale,competition
willlikelymakehighmarginsunsustainable,aswehaveseenmanytimes.
Infact,almostnoautomakersinChinacouldnowmaintainaGPMof20%.
Valuation/Keyrisks.WemaintainourHOLDratingandcutourADR/H-
sharetargetpricesfromUS$7.00/HK$55.00toUS$6.40/HK$50.00,based
on0.8x(prior0.9x)ourrevisedFY26Esalestoreflecttherecentweak
marketsentimentonChineseautosector.Keyriskstoourratingandtarget
priceincludehigherorlowersalesvolumeandmarginsthanweexpect,as
wellasasectorre-ratingandde-rating.