【行业研究报告】极兔速递-W-Takeaways from Bangkok investor call

12Dec202512Dec2025CMBInternationalGlobalMarkets|EquityResearch|CompanyUpdateJ&TExpress(1519HK)J&TExpress(1519HK)-TakeawaysfromBangkokinvestorcallTakeawaysfromBangkokinvestorcallJ&Tarrangedaconferencecallduringtheinvestordayyesterday(11Dec)inBangkok,Thailand,todiscusstheoperationandoutlookofThailandmarket.Afterseveralyearsofpricingcompetitiontofenceoffcompetitors,J&ThasachievedprofitinThailandsincethisyear.Currently,J&Tranksno.1inThailand,withtheparcelvolumeequaltothetotalvolumeofno.2tono.4players.ManagementisconfidentofthegrowthpotentialinThailandmarket,intermsofe-commencepenetrationandpercapitaparcelvolume.ForSoutheastAsia(SEA)marketasawhole,J&Tisconfidentthatitsparcelvolumegrowthwilloutpacetheindustryaveragein2026E.WecontinuetolikeJ&T,dueto(1)theunmatchedcompetitiveedgeandmarketsharegainpotentialinSEA(32.8%in1H25),and(2)goodpotentialinnewmarketssuchasBrazilandtheMiddleEast.MaintainBUYwithSOTP-basedTPunchangedatHK$13.4.Keytakeawaysfrominvestorcall:KeycustomersinSEAandSouthAmerica:InSEA,TikTokisJ&T’slargestcustomer.InSouthAmericaandtheMiddleEast,Sheinisthelargestone.ParcelgrowthinThailand:J&TachievedparcelvolumeCAGRof40%+overthepastthreeyears.J&Tcurrentlyhas200kcustomers,includingnon-e-commercecustomersof20k.Byutilisingthesparenetworkcapacity,J&Thasalsoexpandeditsproductofferingsuchasfruitparcel,time-definiteandLTLproducts.CompetitivelandscapeinThailand:J&Tranksno.1inThailand,withtheparcelvolumeequaltothetotalvolumeofno.2tono.4players.MajorcompetitorsincludeLazadaLogisticsandShopee.J&Tbelievesthatgivenitsnetworkwithhigherdensity,thedeliveryefficiencyishigherwhichresultsincostadvantage.Costmanagement.J&Thasachievedcostreductionof10%p.a.since2022.J&Tmentionedthattheuseofself-ownedtruckshashelpedreducecostby30%comparedwiththeuseofleasedtrucks.J&Tbelievesthatthereisfurtherroomforcostreductiongoingforward.Keyrisks:1)Higher-than-expectedASPpressure;2)competitioninnewmarkets.TargetPriceHK$13.40Up/Downside32.9%CurrentPriceHK$10.08ChinaLogisticsWayneFUNG,CFA(852)39000826waynefung@cmbi.com.hkStockDataMktCap(HK$mn)88,826.6Avg3mthst/o(HK$mn)258.152wHigh/Low(HK$)10.93/4.68TotalIssuedShares(mn)8812.2Source:FactSetShareholdingStructureJetJieLi11.1%Source:HKExSharePerformanceAbsoluteRelative1-mth0.4%5.0%3-mth4.0%6.3%6-mth48.5%41.7%Source:FactSet12-mthPricePerformanceSource:FactSetRelatedreports:J&TExpress(BUY)–ParcelgrowthinSEAfurtheracceleratedin3Q25–14Oct2025(link)J&TExpress(BUY)–1H25profitamixedbagbutgrowthstorywellintact–1Sep2025(link)J&TExpress(BUY)–ImpressiveparcelvolumegrowthinSEA–9Jul2025(link)EarningsSummary(YE31Dec)FY23AFY24AFY25EFY26EFY27ERevenue(US$mn)8,84910,25912,16114,11016,162YoYgrowth(%)21.815.918.516.014.5Adjustednetprofit(US$mn)(432.3)200.3347.6583.2760.9EPS(Adjusted)(US$cents)(5.00)2.273.946.628.63ConsensusEPS(US$cents)nana4.607.059.45P/E(x)ns113.544.821.716.7P/B(x)4.24.03.73.22.7Yield(%)0.00.00.00.00.0ROE(%)na3.68.615.717.3Netgearing(%)(8.8)(1.9)(0.8)(6.0)(5.8)Source:Companydata,Bloomberg,CMBIGMestimates