【行业研究报告】华润万象生活-FY25 preview: core NP growth trimmed to low teens

14Jan202614Jan2026CMBInternationalGlobalMarkets|EquityResearch|CompanyUpdateCRMixCLifestyle(1209HK)CRMixCLifestyle(1209HK)-FY25preview:coreNPgrowthtrimmedtolowteensFY25preview:coreNPgrowthtrimmedtolowteensWeforecastCRMixC'sFY25Erevenuetoincreaseby6.5%YoYtoRMB18.2bn,wheretheresidentialsegmentisflatYoY,draggedbyVASbiz.Duringtheperiod,weexpectthecommercialsegmenttogrow13.8%YoY,mainlybecauserevenuegrowthofshoppingmallslowedto18%onahighbase(30%inFY24drivenbyone-offfactors).WeexpectcoreNPtorise10.8%YoYtoRMB3.9bninFY25E,underpinnedbystableGPmargininbasicPM,continuedimprovementinGPmarginofshoppingmall,andlowerSG&Aratio.Overall,wemaintainFY25-27Erevenueforecastsunchanged,butcutcoreNPforecastsby4%toreflectamorereasonablemarginexpansionpace.WeraiseourtargetP/Emultipleby9%to25x,reflectingreducedrelianceonresidentialbiz,strengthenedsectorleadership,andenhancedscarcitypremiumamidcapitalallocationdemand.WeraiseourTPby4%toHK$53.96,equivalentto25x2026EPE.Giventhelong-terminvestmentvalueoftheCompany,FY25resultsatthelowerendofguidancerangemaytriggersharepricepullback,andthusweadviseinvestorstobuildpositionsproactively.Shoppingmallbiz:FY25Eretailsalesgrowthisexpectedtolieinthe20-25%range,with14luxurymallsgrowingfaster,mainlybenefitingfromnewconsumptionformatssuchastrendytoys,gold&jewelleries,andoutdoorgearsetc.Weexpectrelatedconsumptiontocontinuetooutperformpeersin2026amidongoinggeopoliticalturbulenceanddomesticassetpricepressure.Weestimatethesegment’sFY25Erevenuetoincrease18%YoY(vs.30%inFY24),primarilyduetoahighbase(one-off).Onthird-partyexpansion,thecompanysecured11projectsbyend-Nov,exceedingthefull-yeartargetof10,andcompletedthetargetof14newopenings.WeexpecttheGPcontributionfromshoppingmallbiztoreach60%inFY25E,liftingtheentireGPcontributionofcommercialoperationssegmenttoabove70%.Residentialbiz:Weexpectsegmentrevenuetobebroadlyflat(+1.3%YoY)inFY25E,withbasicPMremainingstableamidsectorheadwinds,up8.7%YoY.Non-ownerVASandcommunityVASrevenueseachdeclined30%+YoY,draggedbyshrinkingnewhomemarketandaccountingmethodchanges.SegmentGPmarginremainedstable.Third-partyexpansionreachedRMB940mnbyend-Nov,largelyontracktomeetthefull-yeartargetofRMB1.0bn.100%payoutcanbeexpected.Weseeahighlikelihoodthatthecompanywillmaintaina100%payoutratio(60%ordinary+40%special),basedon:1)noclearplanforlarge-scalecapitaldeploymentatpresent;and2)accordingtorecentPMsectorpractice,whenresultslandatorbelowguidance,firmstendtouseahigherpayoutratiotostabilizemarketsentiment.TargetPriceHK$53.96(PreviousTPHK$51.84)Up/Downside20.2%CurrentPriceHK$44.90ChinaPropertyManagementMiaoZHANG(852)37618910zhangmiao@cmbi.com.hkStockDataMktCap(HK$mn)102,506.7Avg3mthst/o(HK$mn)205.752wHigh/Low(HK$)46.50/28.25TotalIssuedShares(mn)2283.0Source:FactSetShareholdingStructureChinaResourcesInc.72.3%Freefloat27.7%Source:HKExSharePerformanceAbsoluteRelative1-mth2.0%-1.4%3-mth10.0%6.1%6-mth19.1%7.1%Source:FactSet12-mthPricePerformanceSource:FactSetEarningsSummary(YE31Dec)FY23AFY24AFY25EFY26EFY27ERevenue(RMBmn)14,76717,04318,15419,69821,172YoYgrowth(%)22.915.46.58.57.5Netprofit(RMBmn)2,928.73,629.44,008.44,483.14,951.9EPS(Reported)(RMB)1.281.591.761.962.17YoYgrowth(%)32.823.910.411.810.5ConsensusEPS(RMB)nana1.782.032.27P/E(x)31.325.322.920.418.5P/B(x)5.75.66.46.26.0Yield(%)1.21.64.24.85.3ROE(%)19.422.426.030.832.8Source:Companydata,Bloomberg,CMBIGMestimates