【行业研究报告】极兔速递-W-Share swap with SF to help expand new markets

15Jan202615Jan2026CMBInternationalGlobalMarkets|EquityResearch|CompanyUpdateJ&TExpress(1519HK)J&TExpress(1519HK)-ShareswapwithSFtohelpexpandnewmarketsShareswapwithSFtohelpexpandnewmarketsJ&TandSF(6936HK/002352CH,NR)announcedashare-swapagreementthismorning.Webelieveitisanimportantstrategicco-operationthatallowsbothcompaniestoleveragetheirvaluableresourcestoachievesynergies.Managementarrangedaconferencecallthismorning.Keytakeaways:Inoverseasmarkets,J&TcanleverageSF’sfirst-mile,cross-borderlinehaul,warehousesandparcellockerstofurthergrowitsexpressdeliverynetworkintheemergingmarketsaswellasopenupopportunitiesinEuropeandtheUSmarket.Intermsofproducts,J&Twillbeabletoexpanditsofferingsontime-definiteproductsintheSEA.InChinamarket,J&T’snon-ecommercedeliveryproductscanbeexpandedthroughleveragingSF’sparcelpick-uppointnetwork.SubscriptionofSFsharesbyJ&T:J&Twillsubscribe225.9mnH-sharesissuedbySFatapriceofHK$36.74/shr(totalconsideration:HK$8.3bn).Thesubscriptionpricerepresentsa3.9%premiumtotheclosingpriceon14Jan.Thesubscriptionpriceisequivalentto~13x2026EP/E(basedonBloombergconsensusearningsforSF).Uponcompletion,J&Twillown4.29%ofthetotalo/sshares(enlarged)ofSF.SubscriptionofJ&TsharesbySF:SFwillsubscribe822mnBsharesissuedbyJ&TatapriceofHK$10(~14.8%discounttotheclosingpriceon14Jan).Basedonourearningsforecast,thesubscriptionpricerepresents~19x2026EP/E.Uponcompletion,SF’sholdingsinJ&Ttotalshareswillincreaseby8.45pptsto10%.Longlock-upperiod.Bothcompaniesagreedonafive-yearlock-upperiod.Wethinkthelonglock-upperiodreflectsthestrongcommitmentfromthetwocompanies,whichwillofferthemarketwithconfidence.MaintainBUYwithunchangedSOTP-basedTPofHK$13.4.WecontinuetolikeJ&T,dueto(1)itsunmatchedcompetitiveedgeandmarketsharegainpotentialinSEA(32.8%in1H25),(2)goodpotentialinnewmarketssuchasBrazilandtheMiddleEast,and(3)potentialnewbusinessopportunitiesarisingfromtheco-operationwithSF.Wehaveleftourmodelunchangedfornowastheshare-swapagreementissubjecttoshareholders’approval.TargetPriceHK$13.40Up/Downside14.1%CurrentPriceHK$11.74ChinaLogisticsWayneFUNG,CFA(852)39000826waynefung@cmbi.com.hkStockDataMktCap(HK$mn)103,454.8Avg3mthst/o(HK$mn)237.152wHigh/Low(HK$)12.00/4.68TotalIssuedShares(mn)8812.2Source:FactSetShareholdingStructureJetJieLi11.1%Source:HKExSharePerformanceAbsoluteRelative1-mth10.7%6.5%3-mth22.2%15.1%6-mth29.4%16.0%Source:FactSet12-mthPricePerformanceSource:FactSetRelatedreports:J&TExpress(BUY)–TakeawaysfromBangkokinvestorcall–12Dec2025(link)J&TExpress(BUY)–ParcelgrowthinSEAfurtheracceleratedin3Q25–14Oct2025(link)J&TExpress(BUY)–1H25profitamixedbagbutgrowthstorywellintact–1Sep2025(link)J&TExpress(BUY)–ImpressiveparcelvolumegrowthinSEA–9Jul2025(link)EarningsSummary(YE31Dec)FY23AFY24AFY25EFY26EFY27ERevenue(US$mn)8,84910,25912,16114,11016,162YoYgrowth(%)21.815.918.516.014.5Adjustednetprofit(US$mn)(432.3)200.3347.6583.2760.9EPS(Adjusted)(US$cents)(5.00)2.273.946.628.63ConsensusEPS(US$cents)nana4.607.059.45P/E(x)ns131.952.025.319.4P/B(x)4.84.74.33.73.1Yield(%)0.00.00.00.00.0ROE(%)na3.68.615.717.3Netgearing(%)(8.8)(1.9)(0.8)(6.0)(5.8)Source:Companydata,Bloomberg,CMBIGMestimates