【行业研究报告】爱奇艺-4Q25E preview: expect both revenue and earnings to recover in 4Q25

4Q25Epreview:expectbothrevenueand
earningstorecoverin4Q25
WeexpectiQiyitotalrevenuetoregaingrowthmomentumin4Q25.Weforecast
4Q25Etotalrevenuetogrowby2%YoYand1%QoQtoRMB6.77bn,mainly
drivenbytherecoveryofmembershipandcontentdistributionbusinesses.We
expectiQiyitorecordnon-GAAPnetincomeofRMB93mnin4Q25E,upfrom
non-GAAPnetlossofRMB59/148mnin4Q24/3Q25,thankstooperating
leverageandenhancedefficiency.Besides,iQiyi’sinnovativebusinessessuch
asoverseasbusiness,microdramaandIPderivativescontinuedtomake
positiveprogress.Overall,weliftFY25-27Enon-GAAPnetincomeforecaststo
RMB0.3/1.0/1.3bn(RMB0.1/1.0/1.2bnpreviously),inviewoftherevenue
recoverytrendandoperatingleverage.Wefine-tuneourtargetpricetoUS$2.75
basedon18x2026Enon-GAAPEPS(previous:US$2.65on18x2026Enon-
GAAPEPS).MaintainBUY.
Expecttotalrevenuetorecoverby2%/1%YoY/QoQin4Q25E.For
4Q25E:1)afterdecliningYoYforsevenconsecutivequarterssince1Q24,
4Q25E:1)afterdecliningYoYforsevenconsecutivequarterssince1Q24,
weestimatemembershiprevenuetobelargelyflattishYoYatRMB4.1bn,
primarilydrivenbythesolidperformanceofseveralpopularTVseriestitles;
2)weforecastonlineadvertisingrevenuetodeclineby6%YoYbutgrowby
8%QoQtoRMB1.34bn.TheQoQincreasewasmainlyduetotheadbudget
growthduringe-commerceshoppingfestivals,andpopularvarietyshows;
3)weforecastcontentdistributionrevenuetoincreaseby90%YoYand
20%QoQ,mainlyattributabletotheincreasedrevenuecontributionfrom
contentdistributiontoTVandotherchannels.
Positiveprogressinoverseasmarket,microdramaandIPderivatives.
iQIyicontinuedtomakeprogressonitsnewinitiatives.1)Overseas
business:totalvideoviewsofiQiyioverseasappgrewby114.5%YoYin
2025,mainlydrivenbythestrongperformanceofdomestically-producedTV
seriesandmovies.2)Microdrama:totalnumberofmicrodramatitles
exceeded20,000,withoverhalfavailableforfree.Thecompanywillfurther
expanditsmicrodramacontentlibraryandimprovecontentquality,todrive
usertimespendandmonetization.3)IPderivatives:iQiyiplanstoopenis
firstiQiyiLandinYangzhouonFeb8,whichwillbringiQiyi’svariousIPs
offline.
Expectmarginimprovementin4Q25E/FY26E.Weexpectnon-GAAP
OPMtoimproveby2pptQoQto1.8%in4Q25E,primarilyattributableto
revenuerecoveryandenhancedefficiency.WeforecastGPMtoimproveby
2pptQoQto20.2%in4Q25E,supportedbyprudentcostcontroland
operatingleverage.Withtoplinerecovery,weexpectnon-GAAPOPMto
bottomoutandimproveto6%/7%inFY26/27E,versus2%inFY25E.