【行业研究报告】中国平安-Banca fuelling NBV growth in jumpstart sales; 4Q earnings could ease on growth stock corrections

BancaNBVhikinginjumpstartsales;expectFY26ENBVtoriseby18%.
PingAnedgedonitsproprietarybancassurancechannelsthroughPAB
PingAnedgedonitsproprietarybancassurancechannelsthroughPAB
historically,andexpandedto~19knon-PABoutletsby3Q25.Wethink
bancassurancecanbeaprimarychannelbenefitingfromthemigrationof
households’depositsgiventheirlowriskappetiteanddemandforhigher
reinvestmentyields.Withtotal~200koutletsinChina,PingAncouldfully
leveragethischannelbyenhancingoutletpenetrationandsalesproductivity.
Assuming20%-30%oftheseoutletshavehigh-net-worthclients,theinsurerstill
hasampleheadroomforfurtheroutletexpansioninourview.Weproject
FY25E/26ENBVgrowthtobe42%/18%YoY,boostedbyrobustFYPuptickand
astablemargin.Jumpstartsalesperformanceinbancassurancehasbeen
strongin2026Ebasedonourchannelcheck,whichlaidasolidfoundationfor
1Q26ENBVgrowthontopofalowcomparativebase.
Weaker4Qearningsbygrowthstockcorrections;expectrobustsolvency.
Theinsurerincreasedexposuretogrowthstocksin3Q25,amidstthebroader
sectortrendtocapturetherisingmomentuminA-sharemarket.Asof1H25,the
allocationtoTPL/OCIstockswasat35%/65%forPingAn,andweexpectthe
TPLmixtofurtherrisebyyear-endamidashifttoPARproducts.By1H25,Ping
An’stotalequityexposure(incl.listed/non-standardequityinvestmentsand
LTVs)amountedto18.3%oftotalinvestmentassets,whichwebelievecould
furthergrowin2H25,givenmoreproactivestockallocationamidsupportive
policies.In4Q25,CSIA500/HSTECHindiceswere+2.7%/-14.7%,vs.3Q25:
+47%/+22%,suggestingaweaker4Q25investmentcontributiontonet
earnings.Wefine-tunedourgroupNPATforecasttoRMB133bninFY25E.
LiftourTPtoHK$90fromHK$75.Thestockistradingat0.71xFY26EP/Group
EVand1.01xFY26EP/B.WederiveourHK$90pricetargetusinganSOTP
valuationapproach,including1)1.32xP/LifeEVforPingAnLife;2)0.94xP/B
forPingAnP&C;3)0.6xP/BforPAB;4)1.0xP/BforAMandotheroperations;
5)HK$0.8pershareforonlinebusinessesbasedonrespectiveP/B-ROE;and
6)15%conglomeratediscount.OurnewTPimplies0.9xFY26EP/EVand1.24x
FY26EP/B.WelikePingAnasasectorpioneerinlifeinsurancereformwithits
L&HCSMbalanceheadingtowardstherighttrack.MaintainBUY.