【行业研究报告】亚马逊-Growth story unchanged with acceleration in AWS revenue growth better than expectation

9Feb2026
9Feb2026
CMBInternationalGlobalMarkets|EquityResearch|CompanyUpdate
Amazon(AMZNUS)
Amazon(AMZNUS)-Growth
storyunchangedwith
accelerationinAWSrevenue
growthbetterthanexpectation
Growthstoryunchangedwithaccelerationin
AWSrevenuegrowthbetterthanexpectation
Amazonannounced(6FebBJT)4Q25results:revenuewasUS$213.4bn,up
14%YoY,or12%YoYonconstantcurrencybasis(4Q24:11%onconstant
currencybasis),1%betterthanbothourforecast/Bloombergconsensus
estimate.Duringtheperiod,totaloperatingprofitwasUS$25.0bn,up18%YoY,
2%/1%aheadofourforecast/Bloombergconsensus.Excludingthreeone-off
specialchargestotallingUS$2.4bn,operatingprofitwouldbe10%aheadof
consensus.4Q25AWSYoYrevenuegrowthacceleratedto23.6%(3Q25:
20.2%;4Q24:18.9%),2pptsaboveconsensus,drivenbyeased(yetstill
existing)supplyconstraints.For2025,totalrevenuegrew12%YoYto
US$716.9bn,andoperatingprofitgrew17%YoYtoUS$80.0bn.Management
guidedforUS$173.5bn-178.5bnrevenuefor1Q26E(consensus:US$175.5bn),
implying11-15%YoYgrowth.Meanwhile,operatingprofitisguidedtobe
US$16.5-21.5bn(consensus:US$22.2bn),withUS$200bncapexfor2026E
(implies>50%YoYgrowth).Welifted2026-2027Erevenueforecastsby2-3%
toaccountforbetter-than-expectedgrowthoutlookforAWSrevenue,while
loweredOPforecastsby2-4%toaccountfordepreciationimpactfromcapex
andinvestmentinnewinitiatives.Afterrollingforwardvaluationwindowto
2026E,ourTPwasliftedby9%toUS$292.0,basedon17.3xEV/EBITDA(was
17.5x),inlinewithtwo-yearaveragetradingrange.MaintainBUY.
AWS:accelerationinrevenuegrowthbetterthanexpectation.In4Q25,
AWSinkedrevenueofUS$35.6bn,up23.6%YoY,andOPMforAWSof
35.0%wasup0.4pptsQoQand0.7pptsaheadofconsensus.Forcapex,
cashcapexplusfinanceleaseswasUS$38.5/128bnin4Q25/2025
(+46/64%YoY),andmanagementguidedforUS$200bncapexin2026E(vs
totalOCFofUS$140bn/182bnin2025/2026EbasedonBloomberg
consensus).ManagementhighlightedthatthebacklogforAWShas
reachedUS$244bnin4Q25,up22%QoQand40%YoY,anditisstill
rampingupcapacitytofulfilthedemand.Amazonhasaddedmorethan
1.2/3.9gigawattsofpowerin4Q25/2025(vspreviousguidanceofaddingat
leastonegigawattin4Q25),andexpectedtodoubleoverallcapacityby
end-2027.WeforecastAWStodeliver26%YoYrevenuegrowthin2026E,
drivenbyfurthereasinginsupplyconstraints.Meanwhile,wehighlightthe
needforgreaterfocusontheimpactofelevatedcapexoncashflow.
Marginexpansionremainsontrack.In4Q25,Amazon’sNAbusiness
recordedrevenueofUS$127.1bn,up9.9%YoY(4Q24:9.5%),inlinewith
consensus,whileOPMexpandedby1.0pptYoYto9.0%(consensus:
8.6%).Forinternationalsegment,revenuewasUS$50.7bn,up16.8%YoY,
2.0%aheadofconsensus,withanOPMof2.1%(4Q24:3.0%),while
managementnotedthattheOPMwouldhaveexpandedYoYifexcluding
theimpactofspecialcharges.
UpdateonAIrelatedapplicationsandbusinessinitiatives:1)Trainium