【行业研究报告】禾赛-Structural growth story remains intact

Structuralgrowthstoryremainsintact
WereiterateourpositiveviewonHesaiGroup(Hesai).TheCompany
maintainedindustryleadershipin2025,andrankedfirstwith40.94%market
shareintheforward-facingmainLiDARsegmentforpre-installedpassenger
carsinChina,perGGII.WeremainpositivethatHesaiispoisedtogrow
alongsidetherisingdemandforLiDARproducts.Moreusecasesinrobotics
andindustrialmarketsshouldpropelfurtherTAMexpansionoverthelongrun,
inourview.WeliftourTPtoUS$31.3perADS,basedon7.5x2026EPS(was
5.3x),inlinewithaverageone-yearforwardPSoverthepastyearplusone
standarddeviation.WeseecatalystsfrompotentialincreaseinL3adoption
industry-widetodrivetheindustrytowarda“multi-radar”perceptionera,thereby
boostingthedollaramountofLiDARproductspervehicle.Weestimate2024-
27Erevenue/non-GAAPNPCAGRof43%/318%forHesai.MaintainBUY.
4Q25resultspreview.For4Q25E,weareexpectingrevenueof
RMB1.0bn,up44%YoY,andnon-GAAPnetprofitofRMB107mn,
RMB1.0bn,up44%YoY,andnon-GAAPnetprofitofRMB107mn,
translatinginto10.3%non-GAAPNPM.Hesaiannouncedthattotal
shipmentvolumeforLiDARhassurpassed1.6mnin2025,amongwhich
c.1.4mnwasforADASandover200kunitswereforrobotics.Thedata
translatesintoover610kunitsLiDARshipmentin4Q25,upover175%YoY.
Inourview,thiswasdrivenbyrobustshipmentgrowthofATXandJTseries.
Wearelookingfor2.6mnunitsLiDARshipmentin2026,up61%YoY,
drivenbytheshipmentofrevampedATX(whichhassecuredorders
exceeding4mnunitsandplanstobeginmassproductioninApr2026)and
JTseriesproducts.
Morecatalyststoexpectin2026E.Hesaihassecureddesignwinsfrom
bothofitstop2ADAScustomersacrossalltheir2026models,featuring
100%lidaradoption.Also,theCompany’shigh-endETXLiDARsecureda
designwinwithatop3domesticNEVautomaker(whichisanexisting
customerofHesai),pairedwithmultipleFTXunits,andmassproductionis
slatedforlate2026orearly2027.Meanwhile,weexpectthepotential
increaseinL3adoptionindustry-widetodrivetheindustrytowarda“multi-
radar”perceptionera(3-6LiDARunitspervehicle),therebydrivingan
increaseindollaramountpervehicleforLiDARproducts.Intermsof
capacitylayout,Hesaihasdoubleditsannualproductioncapacityfrom2mn
unitsin2025to4mnunitsin2026.
TPofUS$31.3basedon7.5x2026EPS.Ourtargetmultipleof7.5x2026E
PSwasinlinewithaverageone-yearforwardPSoverthepastyearplusone
standarddeviation,higherthanindustryaverageof4.1x2026EPS,which
inourviewcouldbejustifiedbyHesai’srobustrevenueandearningsgrowth
outlook,andstrongcompetitiveadvantages.Wearelookingfor43%2024-
2027ECAGRforrevenueand37%YoYgrowthfornon-GAAPNPin2026E
(or99%YoYifexcludingone-offgainsfromequityinvestmentin2025E).