图表内容
图33：芝加哥交易所美联储利率观察工具对加息概率的预测(2022.11.18期货市场数据)
MEETING PROBABILITIES
MEETING DATE
375-400
400-425
425-450
450-475475-500
500-525
525-550
550-575575-600
2022/12/14
0.0%
0.0%
75.8%
24.2%
0.0%
0.0%
2023/2/1
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
40.7%
48.1%
11.2%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
2023/3/22
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
8.3%
42.2%
40.6%
8.9%
0.0%
0.0%
202315/3
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
5.2%
29.7%
41.2%
20.6%
3.3%
0.0%
2023/6/14
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
4.7%
27.5%
40.2%
22.5%
4.8%
0.3%
2023/7/26
0.0%
0.0%
0.9%
9.3%
30.0%
36.7%
19.0%
3.9%
0.2%
2023/9/20
0.0%
0.3%
3.4%
15.5%
32.0%
31.3%
14.4%
2.8%
0.2%
2023/11/1
0.1%
1.9%
9.6%
23.9%
31.7%
22.8%
8.5%
1.5%
0.1%
2023/12/13
1.3%
7.0%
19.2%
29.1%
25.7%
13.2%
3.8%
0.5%
0.0%
资料来源：芝加哥期货交易所，中原证券
