图表内容
图表5:市场预期一季度停止加息,9月份开始降息
MEETING PROBABILITIES
MEETING DATE
350-375
375.400400-425
425.450
450.475
475-500
500-525525-550
2023/2/1
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
96.4%
3.6%
0.0%
0.0%
2023/322
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
28.1%
69.3%
2.6%
0.0%
2023/5/3
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
20.4%
58.1%
20.8%
0.7%
2023/6/14
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
19.4%
56.3%
22.6%
1.7%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
5.1%
29.0%
47.5%
17.1%
1.2%
2023/9/20
0.0%
0.0%
2.2%
15.6%
37.2%
34.1%
10.1%
0.7%
2023/11/1
0.0%
1.1%
9.0%
26.5%
35.6%
22.0%
5.4%
0.4%
2023/12/13
1.1%
8.6%
25.7%
35.2%
22.6%
6.1%
0.6%
0.0%
资料来源:Wind
太平洋证养研究院